The Republican March in Ankara: Crossing the Threshold

Onlookers watch military band in Taksim, commemorating
89th year of the founding of the Republic with police in background

For Turkey, this last week could have been remembered as a nice combination of religion and state. The Muslim Kurban Bayram (Eid al-Adha) fell right before the state holiday commemorating the founding of the Republic. With Turkey’s secular and religious politicians polarized, there was a chance that both groups could celebrate the two important days in unison.  However, once news came out last week that Ankara’s governor banned the Republican Day’s October 29th annual march things began to heat up. Today, defying the AK party’s banning of the march, Turkey’s secular elite marched, and what ensued was an show of force by the Turkish police, who were trying to uphold the government’s orders.

Here is a link to a video showing the violent protests in Ankara, featured in Radikal.

Since coming to power, almost a decade ago, the AKP party, led by Prime Minister Erdogan, who can easily be defined as one of Turkey’s most influential leaders ever, has worked to curb the state’s secular institutions, which were historically guarded by the Turkish army. For the conservative secular elite, early on they accused the AKP as leading an Islamic revolution; claims that were exorbitant and baseless, but nevertheless, an expected reaction from a group whose influence was being cropped at the stem.  

Headquarters of the Youth Wing of the Secular People Republican Party

The competition of these two groups has touched upon the lives of meaning average Turkish citizens. For example, before the AKP, women were not allowed to wear the Islamic headscarf in universities, which the secular elite defined as a definitive way to block the influence of Islam into the public sphere. Let it be known, that with the Turkish society over 99 percent Muslim, the average citizen really never supported the headscarf ban (one that continues in public offices until today) and were perhaps even relieved when the AKP started allowing all women to study in universities. 

Another form of competition has been how each group defines Turkey’s history, the Republic itself, and how its founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, is memorialized. The AKP, while not banning the official republican days, has downgraded them, treating them to some extent as products of a secular republic which for years oppressed them. Erdogan has clearly maneuvered through these days, participating in them and respecting them; but not commemorating them with past zeal of the former secularists.  The AKP’s stance on the official Republican days also does not seem to represent the average Turkish citizen, who sees the national holidays as an integral part of their daily lives. 

It is for this reason that banning of the Republic Day March in Ankara, the capital of the Republic, should be seen as crossing a dangerous threshold.  The governor’s claim that it was cancelled due to security reasons was seen as a provocation, and once Erdogan publicly supported this move, the Republic People’s Party (CHP) leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, called the masses to join him at the march. What ensued was a scene that is becoming more and more common in Turkey: a police force utilizing massive force against civilians protesting in a completely peaceful manner; civilians, young and old, having their faces covered with pepper spray, with water cannons throwing people to the ground, and massive clouds of teargas hovering over. And, it was just not civilians; Kilicdaroglu and other parliament members were also among the masses inhaling the teargas.    

Today’s events should be worrying to the government since it is another sign that the polarization between the two camps is widening, and as was the case today, can turn violent. Further, the AKP, as a result, seems to losing a grip on their massive constituency, who many do not identify with their political agenda but rather have been happy with their economic policies. Furthermore, the government would be wise to investigate how such an important day for so many of its citizens could end so badly. Perhaps, only then, can the two sides start to work together to reach common ground and understanding.

Netanyahu's Political Gamble: Uniting with Lieberman (Israeli 2013 Election Coverage, 1)

Since PM Netanyahu declared over two weeks ago that he was calling early elections, which will be held on January 22, the Israeli political world started to tremor; last Thursday evening, with Netanyahu and FM Lieberman’s announcement that their parties were uniting under the name, Likud Beitenu, an earthquake has taken place.

During the last 3.5 years, Israel has had one of its most stable governments in history. Despite not having the largest party in the Knesset, Netanyahu’s Likud party, together with Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beitenu party, stood solid.  The two parties formed the largest bloc in the Knesset with 42 seats out of 120, and together with the Sephardic religious party Shas, and other right wing and religious parties, Netanyahu was easily able to muster up a majority. 

Despite his majority, there were a few crises, and high and low moments. However, one trend remains clear: Netanyahu has always shown the need to bring in a strong ally from another party. Netanyahu, a shrewd politician, basically used Barak and Mofaz when needed and discarded them accordingly.  Ehud Barak will be remembered as the leader who defected from the Labor party, in order to continue to serve as Netanyahu’s loyal defense minister; as long as Netanyahu had Barak, he could create the illusion that Israel was interested in reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Later, earlier this summer, in order to buy time, he enticed Shaul Mofaz, the leader of Kadima, the largest party in the Knesset, to join his coalition. This gave Netanyahu an almost historic majority; needless to say, this was a short-lived partnership.   

At times, it seemed as if Netanyahu believed that having a second-strong man in the coalition would neutralize the real force, Avigdor Lieberman. His party, Yisrael Beitunu (Israel’s Our Home), is a far-right party, who in the 2006 elections almost surpassed Likud’s performance. Lieberman in some senses can be seen as the “bad boy” of the Likud, since it was Netanyahu who helped give him his quick boost into Israeli politics, but left the Likud in 1997, objecting to Netanyahu’s concessions to Palestinians.  In 1999, he formed the Yisrael Beitunu, which bases its main source of voters from immigrants from the fomer Soviet Union. His party since has continued to grow, and is a major force in Israeli politics.  

For Netanyau, joining with Lieberman, who might be indicted in the near future due to an ongoing corruption case, is a huge political gamble. It is hard to find a more polarizing politician than Lieberman. Within the Likud, many see Lieberman as far too right wing; among Israel’s left he is seen as a racist, whose politics borderline on fascism; among Israel’s Palestinian citizens (20% of overall Israel population) he as seen as a threat. Put simply, he is a provocateur.  

For the Likud, a democratic party, with proper institutions, the fact that Netanyahu has made the decision to set up a joint list with Lieberman, without the blessing of the party, is not good news at all. If Netanyahu allows Lieberman to become too dominant, Likud has the chance of losing its center-right voters, who support the Likud as a right -wing party, which has remained true to its liberal and pluralistic foundations, represented by such politicians as Dan Meridor and Benny Begin. Further, with the recent announcement of Moshe Kahlon that he will not run for the upcoming elections, the Likud is left without a center-right Mizrahi candidate. One Israeli pundit correctly commented combining Likud’s traditional Mizrahi base together with Lieberman’s Russian base, is like mixing oil and water.

For Lieberman, this is a win-win situation. He is interested in infiltrating the center (along with importing his radical right-wing politics) and leaving his party behind.  Yisrael Beitunu as a party seems limited in scope and seem has reached its peak. What seems clear is that Lieberman is laughing out loud at his adversaries such as Ehud Barak and Shaul Mofaz, who seems to have been finished by Netanyahu’s slick moves; the question remains what Netanyahu has in his secret brief case for Lieberman. If he needs, will he be able to ditch Lieberman if polls in the next few weeks show the new Likud Beiteinu as not being able to dish out the strong numbers they are predicting.

On a personal note, over the years, I have made myself clear many times concerning Lieberman. I would claim that as Israel’s Foreign Minister, he has brought Israel to one of its lowest place ever, and his unruly behavior in the halls of the United Nations does not suit a country of Israel’s stature. He has proven time again that he has no interest whatsoever in the peace process, and even his politics can be seen not only as anti-Arab but generally unsympathetic to Muslims in general. Even the thought that one day he might become   Israel's defense minister, or even the Prime Minister, hopefully will be enough to convince the center-left in Israel that they need to unite and place their personal aspirations aside in order to save the Israeli democracy.  

*For more on the upcoming Israeli elections, and my point of view, please follow me on Twitter @istanbultelaviv, or find me by searching Louis Fishman

Update: Israeli elections and Twitter

Dear all,

Just wanted to let you know that during the next few months, in addition to continuing to follow events in Turkey (especially related to Syria), I will begin to focus on the Israeli elections which will be held Jan 22, 2013. This blog can be your address for not only more detailed articles but also regular updates. Also, I will try to bring to you the reader information about some smaller parties which might be unfamiliar to readers outside of Israel.  Please feel free to write me via the blog about any questions you might have concerning the elections.

Also, during the last month I have started to use twitter more ambitiously. You are welcomed to follow me at @Istanbultelaviv Hope to see you there. I will be posting a link also on my blog in due time.....

Yours,

Louis