The Last Days of Bashar Assad?

July 17, 2012

The Syrian Uprising which started in March 2011 seem as it has at last reached its breaking point. After over 18,000 people killed, it seems that Bashar Assad days are numbered. Until now, Assad has succeeded in keeping the uprising on the periphery, far from the Damascus centre, and believed that he would be able to stamp out the winds of change through violent massacres of innocent civilians, bombarding numerous cities.  While the Syrian uprising was at first confined to peaceful protests over the last six months numerous opposition groups took up arms, causing fear that what we have is actually the beginnings of a full-fledged civil war. During the last days, Damascus has slowly become the center of the opposition assaults and today Assad has received his biggest hit to date, one that it is likely he will not be able to overcome. A daily meeting of Assad’s inner-circle and highest officials was targeted internally, when a bomb was set off killing the DefenseMinister Daud Rajiha, “the highest profile pro-Assad figure to be killed,” his long time family confidante and brother-n-law Asif Shawkat, former Defense Minister Hasan Turkmani, and seriously injuring the Chief of Intelligence Hisham Bekhtyar and the Minister of Interior Muhammad Shaar, among others.

It is clear that the opposition forces in Syria have shown that they do have the strength to bring down the Assad regime.  The fact that such a mission was completed under the noses of these high ranking officials just shows the cracks in the system, not to mention the growing numbers of officials choosing to flee for the surrounding countries of Jordan and Turkey.  For now, the UN will continue to work to secure an unanimous vote in the Security Council condemning the Assad regime, something that only can be one if Russia agrees. However, it seems that the Syrians will not, and have not, waited for the world to act since simply the world already abandoned the Syrians long ago. Lastly, while some analysts warn of a civil war following the ousting of Assad I would argue that this is unlikely. It seems that after today even the upper and middle classes of Damascus who supported the regime in the name of stability and fear of the unknown will submit themselves to the new order which will emerge.  Not like Egypt also, once Assad goes, so does the army officials, and there could be a real chance for reconciliation, also among the different sectarian groups. 

The Sweetness of Victory: A New Egypt?

February 4, 2010

At the moment, as I am writing this, one almost does not need more proof; the pro-democracy protestors' victory is closer than ever, with millions of Egyptians from all of walks of life gathering throughout Cairo and Alexandria in a festive atmosphere calling in unison “Down with Mubarak!” Clearly, the “Day of Departure” has brought the victory so close that from Tahrir Square all the way to the other side of the world, we all can smell and taste its sweetness.

President Hosni Mubarak last night in a non-televised interview with ABC’s Christine Amanpour sent out a message that he himself was “fed-up” and that he is not stepping down because he is afraid of Egypt falling into chaos. Vice President Omar Suleiman also aired an interview confirming the tired President’s words, and also reiterated that the Egyptian government will not use the army against the protestors. And, this was the case today with the Egyptian army which worked together with protestors and has ensured their security. Truly, Mubarak should recognize that it is he who is causing chaos and that for the first time he needs to trust his own people, and not the other way around.

It is imperative that the government and the protestors come to a compromise which will bring the immediate resignation of Mubarak, in order to ensure that the “New Egypt” will not fall into a state of absolute chaos and violence. However, for now we can still remain upbeat. The anti-Mubarak campaign has shown their utmost respect for order, and inclusiveness; in short, a true democratic revolution. Egypt has always been a leader in the Middle East and their citizens have given the world a lesson in how to hold massive peaceful demonstrations without falling into the trappings of a regime which up until yesterday did everything to light flames and to incite violence.

Today with the government taking the backseat,the pro-democratic forces have ushered in a new beginning for Egypt. Once Mubarak resigns, the real test will be for the New Egypt to show their citizens (and the world) that after the Mubarak regime a true democracy based on a liberal democratic system will ensue, promising a place for all to live in freedom and dignity. Otherwise, this will all have been in vain.

In conclusion, as I write from Tel Aviv, I put my trust in all of those protestors, who after a long day are slowly returning home to be with their families, unsure of what tomorrow will bring. They should be satisfied that, together with the Tunisians, they have set a new bar for democracy not only for the Middle East but also for the world.