Shock Waves From Syria Intensify Turkey’s Chaotic Times* (From December 2015)

Last Saturday, on the streets of the Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, Turkey’s renowned human rights lawyer and head of the city’s bar association, Tahir Elci, himself a Kurd, was murdered straight after an outdoor press conference he had held. Hours later, a video emerged of the gun battle, in which concealed attackers fired at Elci and people standing around him. It’s not clear whether he was shot right before, during, or after the gun battle. What was missing from the video was a clear picture of him actually being shot, leaving us only with a glimpse of Elci dead on the ground with a pistol lying next to him. The incident also left two policemen dead, with the perpetrators escaping free.

Regardless of who was actually responsible for his killing, Elci’s assassination - or his death as a result of being caught in crossfire - serves as a metaphor of the chaotic times with which Turkey has become all too familiar.

In fact, last week, just as the newly elected AKP Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu presented his government to the parliament, the country was thrown into a whirlwind of events. From the Turkish Air Force’s downing of the Russian jet, to the arrest of Turkey’s main opposition newspaper’s editor, and the killing of Elci, Turkey watchers have been overwhelmed with non-stop headlines.  

While seemingly unconnected, these events are all somehow related to the greater question of Turkish policy in Syria (even if not solely). With the war progressing into its fifth year, shock waves are continually being felt in Turkey, both domestically and internationally.

The Russian jet shot down, on November 24, 2015. Credit: Reuters.

The shooting down of a Russian jet fighter over Syria caught all by surprise; however, in retrospect, it seems to have been a calculated action, meant to draw red lines for Russian involvement in Syria. Turkey was motivated by a determination to retain one of its last strongholds of influence in Syria and a buffer zone to prevent a Kurdish military presence there. Until now, Turkey has done its utmost at preventing Syria’s Kurdish forces from moving into this region, which would give them an autonomous and contiguous block situated along most of its southern border. However, now with Russia bombing its Turkmen allies, Turkey is in danger of losing influential territory to Syrian President Bashar Assad’s army, a worst-case scenario.

This week also saw the jailing of Can Dundar, one of Turkey’s most influential journalists who serves as the editor-in-chief of the opposition daily Cumhuriyet, together with his journalist colleague, Erdem Gul. They were arrested on trumped-up charges of espionage as a result of their front-page story about a secret arms transfer to rebel groups in Syria. The Turkish government had claimed the shipment was humanitarian aid destined for Syria’s Turkmen community.

This wasn’t actually a new story: it first broke in January 2014, less than a month after massive corruption charges connected to then-prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government. Certainly, Dundar and Gul were not the first journalists to write about the arms delivery. However, their reignition of the debate last May, just days before general elections, hit at the heart of Erdogan’s Syrian soft spot, with speculation that these arms could even have been making their way to ISIS. This led Erdogan at the time to vow publically that he would punish Dundar for his newspaper’s actions. The irony of their arrest just last Thursday is that only days before, Erdogan bragged that it really did not matter if it was an arms transfer or not, begging the question why he was still so keen to put them in jail to await trial.

The significance of the jailing of such prominent journalists is that Erdogan is ready and willing to take on anyone within Turkey challenging his plans to take an active role on his terms in a post-Assad Syria. This determination can quite easily take the form of a personal vendetta for Erdogan, who won’t forget or forgive what he considers acts of disloyalty, even if the payback comes with a time lag.

Lastly, the killing of Elci can also been seen within the context of Turkish policy in Syria. The murder is representative of the chaos that has become part of the daily life of southeast Turkey’s Kurdish citizens since they largely split with the ruling AKP over the future of Syria. Last year’s peace talks between Erdogan and the PKK and the nation’s Kurds went astray when the two camps entrenched their loyalties into opposing camps. The Kurds, together with leftist Turks, formed the People’s Democratic Party, the HDP, a grassroots movement inherently connected to the social and political revolution of the Syrian Kurds across the border. 

The 2014 battle of Kobane, in which Syrian Kurds (including volunteer fighters from leftist groups in Turkey) and ISIS (ironically also including volunteers from Turkey) fought just meters from Turkey’s border, positioned the HDP in opposition to Erdogan’s attempts to block Kurdish expansion and self-defense. This led to claims that he was secretly supporting ISIS (in a variation of the ‘enemy’s enemy’ stratagem) , a position that was seemingly proven in Kurdish eyes by Erdogan’s apparent acceptance that Kobane would eventually fall to ISIS, and that Turkey shouldn’t intervene to prevent it happening.  

The hatred between the ruling party and the pro-Kurdish party grew and grew. When the HDP’s grassroots support translated into a first-ever electoral win in the general elections in June, the peace process went off the rails, and these days PKK and Turkish forces are entrenched in daily fighting.

Not surprisingly, Elci was killed minutes after he called for peace between the Turkish state and the PKK. Just minutes before his death he declared: "We do not want guns, clashes and operations here." It was a scenario with ghastly similarities to last month’s Ankara suicide bombing of mostly pro-HDP demonstrators for peace, allegedly by pro-ISIS operatives, which left over 100 dead.  

It was clear that Elci himself at the least felt he was a marked man. He was a clear opponent of the Turkish government and had recently spoken of credible threats against his life, especially following his appearance on CNN Turk earlier this year, when he stated that the outlawed Kurdish Workers’ Party, the PKK, “is not a terrorist organization. Rather, it is an armed political organization which has large local support.” This led to him being detained and released pending trial for spreading terrorist propaganda, with a hefty fine served on the television station.

While these recent events might lead some to argue that Turkey is certainly in over its head, its prime minister, Davutoglu, has proven to all that he and Erdogan are able to balance this intrinsic instability with glimmers of hope.

On Sunday, Davutoglu signed a comprehensive agreement with the European Union to receive 3 billion euros in return for keeping Syrian refugees tight and as far away from Europe as possible. Other major perks might come with this, such as visa-free entry into the EU for Turkish citizens, and the EU renewing Turkey’s hope of one day entering the union. For Turkey the timing could not have been better, offsetting the proposed Russian sanctions against Turkey, with wall-to-wall support from within NATO as well

On the other hand, for those journalists jailed in Turkey, or those who thought that Europe would speak out against human rights violations in Turkey’s southeastern regions, increasingly subjected to long military curfews and fighting in the streets, they shouldn’t hold their breath.

*This article appeared in Haaretz on December 1, 2105. Click here for the article.

This one is for Kobane: Kader will not return home, will the refugees be able to?

I wonder what is here (in Kobane)? Petrol? Gold? Diamonds? (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, October 31, 2014)

Earlier this week, I took part in audience at City College in New York to hear Salih Muslim Muhammad (often referred only by the first two names) , the c0-chairman of the Kurdish PYD (Democratic Union Party), based in Northern Syria. Beaming live via Skype, he shared with the audience that victory was near in Kobane (Arabic-Ayn al-Arab). For the last 68 days, the PYD's main fighting force the YPG (People's Protection Units) has been holding ground to the forces of the Islamic State (ISIS).

Muslim provided the audience with an upbeat assessment, cautiously predicting that the city would be freed from the last snipers in a matter of days; however, he stressed that this was only the beginning and there was still much work to be done in clearing ISIS in the surround villages. He also clarified that US strikes played a crucial role, and remarked that it was disappointing that some regional powers were still making operations difficult, even when it came to assisting humanitarian aid. It seemed quite obvious he was referring to Turkey.

The news that Kobane's Kurdish forces have gained major ground is good news indeed, and will be welcomed by a coalition of regional and international voices. However, for Turkey, it marks a major miscalculation by its policy makers who even if trying to portray the country as leading a non-interventionist policy, could not cover up the fact that it appeared to most as a concerted demoralization campaign against the Kurds. Even with Turkey's legitimate concerns on how this would play out among their own Kurdish community, it was a short sighted strategy that left Turkey portrayed in world opinion as if it was hoping for an ISIS controlled Kobane. 

In fact, Erdogan numerous times stated that he was not at all sure why so many were supporting Kobane, when so many other cities in Syria did not receive half as much attention, as if this was some conspiracy against Turkey, to strengthen the Kurds vis-a-vis Turkey. Perhaps, Turkey should have placed it in the following terms: once Kobane is back in the hands of the PYD, it is highly likely that the recent 300,000+ Syrian Kurdish refugees will be able to return to their homes. With refugees placing a huge weight on Turkey, what could be better than this. 

Recent picture of Kader Ortakaya 

It was in fact the sheer simplicity of understanding that the people of Kobane were fighting for their homes, that caused so many Turkish citizens to cross the border to fight. Sadly, the fate of many of them was that they will not return, killed in street battles with ISIS. However, the tragic killing of Kader Ortakaya, which took place on November 6, was much different. She was not killed by ISIS, but as the result of a clash with the Turkish army that opened fire on protesters who were creating a human chain at the border. 

A declared revolutionary, and a graduate student at Marmara University, who was overtaken by the call to act, the 28-yr old Kader remained weeks at the border, with the a group called the Initiative of Free Art. Just days before her death in fact she was interviewed by Norwegian television, where she seemed full of hope (which was posted on her facebook). In her last letter home, she explained her convictions to her family, of why she had made her way down to Kobane, with her last sentence making sure her scholarship money went to buying medicine for her sick mother.  

The funeral of Kader Ortakaya

While Kader never made her way back home, let us hope that the refugees from Kobane will be able to in the near future. Even if Kobane does not have gold, the oil of Iraqi Kurdistan, or even diamonds, for hundreds of thousands of people it is their home. What more could one ask for than to be able to return home, rather than being subjected to the humiliating and poor lives as refugees. It seems that it is this part, the simple human side of the story, so many Turkish politicians clearly overlooked, without even taking into consideration the massacre that would have happened in Kobane had ISIS succeeded in taking the city.

A Podcast about Turkish foreign policy and events in Iraq

June 27, 2014

Here is a link to my recent conversation with the podcast, Global Dispatches, hosted by Mark Leon Goldberg, of UN Dispatch (United Nations News and Commentary global news forum), where I expand on some ideas that I first wrote about two weeks ago, in a blogpost entitled: Some thoughts on the US,Turkey, and the Fall of Mosul. I thank the host of the show for asking such point-on questions! 

 

The US, Syria and the need for a comprehensive strategy

Here is an excerpt of my latest in Today's Zaman (11 April 2013):

The Syrian uprising started a little over two years ago and few of us remember it in its first days when thousands of peaceful protestors throughout the country joined in unison, calling for a democratic transition. However, as their protests were brutally beaten down, they were left with only one option: either submit or fight on for freedom and the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, who had failed at reforming the country from years of the cruel regime of his father, Hafez al-Assad.

Over time, the peaceful uprising turned into a civil war, with the formation of the Free Syrian Army, and numerous other factions, fighting the state's forces.

Since the beginning of the Syrian uprising, the crisis has been locked in stalemate, with the US, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia supporting the Free Syrian army and other factions, while Iran is supporting the Assad-led Syrian government, with the blessing of Russia and to some extent China. While many speculated numerous times that Assad's forces were near the end, his regime's resilience has came as a surprise to many. Others have rightly claimed that this has turned into a proxy war, showing little resemblance to what the Syrian people demanded at the beginning of the uprising. However, this should not deter us from the fact that Assad regime must go, and claims that the uprising has been orchestrated as a tool of Western imperialism, only give credence to Assad's cruel authoritarian regime.

To continue reading, here is the link

Syria Bleeds...

Graffiti from an Istanbul wall.....

Reports coming from Syria yesterday estimated over 200 people were killed in fighting. Long gone are the days, the weeks, and the months, when Syrians were peacefully protesting, marching directly into the aim of fire. When the protests started, men, women, and children, together marched and together were killed. In the hearts of free loving Syrians, regardless of Muslim, Christian, Alawi, or Druze, this protest was not about sectarian differences, this was about bringing down a government that had lost any legitimacy; bringing down a President who inherited his seat and was not able to reform the corrupt and oppressive government of his father Hafiz al-Assad. Bashar al-Assad was even given a second chance following the breakout of the revolution, when the protesters demanded reform; but he decided to fight and in so has caused death and destruction beyond belief. Over the last six months, things have got much more complicated with Turkey and the Gulf states supporting the Free Syrian army (backed by the US), while Iran supporting Assad (backed by Russia), leading to all out chaos in many parts of Syria, and a stalemate that has no end in sight.   

Do not believe the cynics who claim that bloodshed in the Middle East is inevitable, and that due to age-old conflicts its various religions and ethnicities can never coexist. As proof they will direct you to civil strife between Shia and Sunni in Iraq; if not, they will pull out the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and will try to convince you that the conflict is not a century old, but a clash of civilizations dating back over a thousand years.  However, the bloodshed we are encountering in Syria (and other parts of the Middle East) should teach us that wars just don’t happen and there is nothing natural about them.  The stalemate today in Syria is a result of regional superpowers, supported by greater powers, which are using Syria as their killing field, much in the way it happened in Lebanon during the 1970s and 1980s.   

As someone who supported the revolution since its first days, we cannot forget that in Syria there was no alternative to revolution.  However, as an outsider, it is becoming more and more difficult to understand the rampant violence and frustrating to see that the violence is greatly due to the manipulation of divided world.  Today, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Iranian President Ahmedinejad  discussed the situation in Syria; tomorrow, Russia and the United States will discuss matters; the following day, the United Nations will once again condemn Russia; next week, the European Union will place another embargo on Syria; all this when more Syrians are killed and are made refugees.     

The longer these powers do not do their utmost to bring a halt to the violence and work to find a solution the more violent this conflict will become. The biggest fear is that even if Assad is forced to step down, the violence in Syria will have crossed the threshold of no return, and they will continue to pay the high cost of a war that long forgot the spirit of the revolution’s first days. 

Today, over 30,000 have been killed and there are over 300,000 Syrian refugees in camps spread out between Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq; not to mention the tens of thousands in the cities of these countries, who remain unaccounted for. With winter just around the corner the situation looks as bleak as ever.    

Lacking a Clear Vision: Turkey Strikes back at Syria

Turkey’s recent strike on Syria was portrayed both in Turkey and in the world as Turkey acting out of its right to defend itself. However, if the Turkish government did not receive international support for the move, and was not pressured domestically, then the question remains why the change in policy. Let me be clear, Turkey has the right to defend itself; however, Syrian mortar fire falling on the Turkish side of the border is far from being an attack on Turkish sovereignty.

Following the Turkish reprisal, the US and the UN, and NATO, publicly supported Turkey, strongly condemning Syria.  However, I imagine behind closed doors there was a different reaction. The US paid lip service to Turkey, while the UN still has its hands tied due to Russia’s support of Syria. During the last six months of conflict, Turkey has often reminded NATO that under article 5 an attack on Turkey should be considered an attack on all participating countries. However, NATO just does not see Syria as posing a threat to the Turkish state and perceives the mortar fire as not more than a nuisance. In short, on the diplomatic front this attack has been another letdown. If Turkey keeps up the way it has, it will continue to lose its prestige within the eyes of Europe and the US.  

Internally there are those Turkish citizens who supported the reprisal; however, it seems that majority are not interested in heating up tensions between the two countries, and do not wish for their country to get militarily involved in the Syrian quagmire.  Furthermore, while Turkish casualties from the Syrian mortar are sad, internal violence and death in Turkey due to the ongoing Kurdish conflict is much more serious. Just this year, almost one hundred Turkish soldiers and police have been killed and the government seems as far as ever from reaching an understanding with the outlawed Kurdish organization, the PKK. It is easy for Turkey to raise its head and invoke some national pride by firing back at Syria, but its real work remains at home.  

Therefore, the question remains why did Turkey choose to retaliate against Syria, and even go so far to pass a bill in parliament allowing Turkish troops to cross into foreign countries.  In my opinion, the change in Turkish policy emerges due to the realization that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) divisions, which Turkey has been supporting, are losing ground. In other words, Turkey’s strengthening of its border is aimed at boosting up the FSA, who are trapped between the Turkish border and the Syrian army. Without Turkish action the FSA could in some places be pushed back into Turkish territory. Next, after Turkey’s failure at securing UN support for a buffer zone in Syria to house refugees  (see previous blog), it seems that the Turkish reprisal is bringing us one step closer to Turkey achieving that goal.  

Whether or not my analysis is correct, one point remains clear. From one failed policy to another, Turkey has been acting out of damage control and lacks a clear vision when it comes to Syria. It is for this reason the Turkish reprisal is worrying since this very well could be the opening of the door to greater Turkish military involvement in Syria; not tomorrow, or the next day, but certainly in the next few months.

Perhaps most worrying hitherto is that the FSA divisions Turkey is supporting seem to be an unruly group of radical Islamic factions, who are also wreaking havoc on the Syrian people and lack the vision and spirit of the revolution. Thus, I imagine that many of the pro-democratic anti-Assad forces are also unhappy with the Turkish involvement, leaving Turkey with many more enemies than friends in Syria. 

Revolutions, a Film, and Obama: A Look at the recent anti-US Protest in the Middle East

Recently, news from the Middle East does not look good.  Last week, anti-American riots broke out in Egypt as the result of an obscure cheaply produced amateur film degrading Muhammad, the Muslim prophet.  Parallel to this, and seemingly not related to the film, an anti-American group of fighters (perhaps motivated by al-Qaeda) carried out a well planned attack on the American consulate in Libya, killing the US ambassador, Chris Stevens. Following the riots and the killing of the ambassador, a wave of commentary has emerged questioning whether or not the Arab uprisings, coined the Arab Spring, was “good” for the US, Europe, or even the Arabs themselves.

The fickleness demonstrated by so many concerning the Arab Spring is not new.  After the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Muhammad Mursi, in the Egyptian Presidential elections, some western news outlets covering the elections made it sound like it was doomed to become another Islamic Republic of Iran.  Now that Syria has fallen into a civil war, some in the world long for the days when Syrians never dared make a peep about their unhappiness with Bashar Assad’s totalitarian regime.     

If one supports, or does not support, the Arab uprisings, we all need to recognize the fact that there was no alternative to the revolutions, and we cannot turn the clock back. Revolutions happen not because one party supports one way or the other. They emerge due to deep desperation and the will of the people to make change. Yes, the Middle East has been thrown into a tumultuous and chaotic period; however, this should be expected due to the fact that for decades a tight lid was kept on their societies with their leaders ruling through coercion and corruption, losing all legitimacy in the eyes of their people. 

The short film, Innocence of Muslims, which sparked off the anti-American riots is not the source of hate for the US, only the catalyst.  While the killing of the ambassador is sad and frustrating it should not come as a surprise. The Americans are not a neutral partner in the unfolding of events and they cannot expect to remain unscathed.  The US is an integral part of the old order, which the masses rebelled against.  It was the US that propped up for years the late Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. It is the US that has not been able to pressure Israel to move towards a peace agreement and end its 45 years of the occupation of Palestinian lands.  It is the US, which invaded Iraq on false pretensions and left the country in shambles, which under their command introduced new levels of violence to the region.

For those who keep criticizing the Arab uprisings and asking if they were good for the West, don’t forget this revolution belongs to the Arab people, not to Washington, or NATO. For the US to regain the trust of the people, taking measures at damage control will not suffice, but rather a serious reassessment of the US role in the Middle East which treats the regimes as equals and not as their cronies.  In the mean time, the US will also have to bear the backlash of violence and anger that they themselves sowed. 

On the flip side of the coin, the new Arab governments have shown that they are interested in stability and retaining relations with the US.  Moreover, we can breathe a sigh of relief because until now violent protests against the US have been directed at government offices and not at its citizens who reside in these countries. 

If Obama is reelected, the US will have a golden opportunity to show the region that they are serious about change, something way beyond the reach of Mitt Romney and the Republicans.  Moreover, President Obama will have the perfect opportunity to show the world that he did not win in 2009 the Nobel Peace prize in vain. A second term will allow him to make his stamp on the future of the Middle East, hopefully, one with an independent Palestine. What is for sure, time is not on his side.      

The Last Days of Bashar Assad?

July 17, 2012

The Syrian Uprising which started in March 2011 seem as it has at last reached its breaking point. After over 18,000 people killed, it seems that Bashar Assad days are numbered. Until now, Assad has succeeded in keeping the uprising on the periphery, far from the Damascus centre, and believed that he would be able to stamp out the winds of change through violent massacres of innocent civilians, bombarding numerous cities.  While the Syrian uprising was at first confined to peaceful protests over the last six months numerous opposition groups took up arms, causing fear that what we have is actually the beginnings of a full-fledged civil war. During the last days, Damascus has slowly become the center of the opposition assaults and today Assad has received his biggest hit to date, one that it is likely he will not be able to overcome. A daily meeting of Assad’s inner-circle and highest officials was targeted internally, when a bomb was set off killing the DefenseMinister Daud Rajiha, “the highest profile pro-Assad figure to be killed,” his long time family confidante and brother-n-law Asif Shawkat, former Defense Minister Hasan Turkmani, and seriously injuring the Chief of Intelligence Hisham Bekhtyar and the Minister of Interior Muhammad Shaar, among others.

It is clear that the opposition forces in Syria have shown that they do have the strength to bring down the Assad regime.  The fact that such a mission was completed under the noses of these high ranking officials just shows the cracks in the system, not to mention the growing numbers of officials choosing to flee for the surrounding countries of Jordan and Turkey.  For now, the UN will continue to work to secure an unanimous vote in the Security Council condemning the Assad regime, something that only can be one if Russia agrees. However, it seems that the Syrians will not, and have not, waited for the world to act since simply the world already abandoned the Syrians long ago. Lastly, while some analysts warn of a civil war following the ousting of Assad I would argue that this is unlikely. It seems that after today even the upper and middle classes of Damascus who supported the regime in the name of stability and fear of the unknown will submit themselves to the new order which will emerge.  Not like Egypt also, once Assad goes, so does the army officials, and there could be a real chance for reconciliation, also among the different sectarian groups. 

Escalation Unlikely after Syria downs Turkish F-4

June 23, 2012


I have been meaning for sometime to write about the deteriorating situation in Syria. With over 15,000 people dead, the far-majority protesters, but many government forces also, Syria is looking more and more like it is in a state of civil war. As the bombardment of anti-government cities, such as Homs, is continuing with brutal force and massacres of the civilian population occurring with no end in sight, the western countries remains with their hands tied due to the fact that Russia is standing behind the Syrian regime blocking any intervention on behalf of NATO, or Europe. Further, all attempts by the UN to stop the violence has proven inefficient. The situation is grave.  

T

Turkish Newspapers covering the downing of the Turkish fighter plane

As for Turkey, it has used all of its political ammunition to no avail, with the closing of all mutual political representation over a month ago. Even, a  military conflict between the two states seemed closer than ever a few weeks back when Syrians were firing over the border at the refugee camps which are housing over 30,000 Syrians who have fled out-of-fear of the Assad regime. However, yesterday, with the downing of a Turkish fighter plane off the coast of Syria not far from Turkish airspace, tensions between Turkey and Syria have entered a dangerous state.  Syria has tried to ease the tensions claiming they did not realize that it was a Turkish plane, something which does not makes sense.Until now, there is no word of the two pilots who have gone missing.  


The Turkish newspapers today were filled with headlines such as Syria is "Playing with Fire," and President Abdullah Gul stating that such an incident cannot "go ignored," hinting at possible action. The Turkish government has been meeting with army officials but has remained silent until now.  Whatever the case, it seems that Ankara will not opt for military intervention and is not interested in an escalation.  Syria is far too messy to get involved with and any Turkish intervention will just lead to a more chaotic state.  Likewise, it is unclear why Syria would shoot down the Turkish jet and who in the chain of command ordered this. It would seem unlikely that anyone high up ordered this but rather it was a an officer who acted out of the moment, showing extremely poor judgement. This point actually might be the core problem: the Syrian forces are losing hold, leading to splits within the military and a break in the chain of command. Planes are "just not shot down," and President Assad is not that stupid to pull Turkey into the conflict. 


While in my opinion, no immediate Turkish reaction is on the horizon (apart from a slap on the hand), this incident brings Turkey closer to supporting the Syrian opposition, and working towards a NATO/European coalition to interfere in Syria during the next few months; something which seems even more possible with the recent warming of ties between France and Turkey, following the election of the new French president Francois Hollande. In any case, it is clear that with the breaking up of Syria into warring camps, Turkey will need to brace itself for future unrest on its long southern border with Syria, and work hard not to get dragged into an unnecessary war.  

The Homs Blockade, Death of Journalists, and Hypocrisy

February 24, 2012

As the Syrian people remain defiant against the brutal oppression of Bashar al-Assad and his forces (which due to the mass defections, it is no longer possible to call it the Syrian army), we received news this week of three journalists who were killed and died as a result of their brave stand.  These people will be remembered as the true heroes of humanity. They are the ones that refuse to let us forget that massacres have been taking place on a daily basis during the last year, with over 6,000 dead. 

First, last week, we received the news of NY Times reporter, Anthony Shadid, who died from an asthma attack,  crossing the Syrian-Turkish border illegally. During my stay in Turkey, I have met correspondents who endanger their lives to cross the border. Few, would have imagined that one would die in such a way; not from a bullet, but from an allergy attack. Here is a link to a story about his life and career.

A few days ago, we learned of the latest two victims: Marie Colvin, a renowned American war correspondent and  a young French photo-journalist Remi Ochilk. They did few imagined infiltrating the battered city of Homs, a city under siege for more than 20 days.  The fact that their outpost was bombed was of no surprise, Homs is site of the greatest massacre Syria as seen since Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafiz al-Assad laid siege in 1982 to  the rebellious cities of Homs and Hama.   Here is a link to the story, which also reports the recent death in Homs of blogger Rami el-Sayed, along with other "citizen-journalists." Other recent press staff victims are cameraman Ferzat Jarban, Basil al-Sayed, Gilles Jacquier, and Mazhar Tayyara. 

The severity of the situation in Homs is clear from some of Ms Colvin's description upon entering Homs days before her death:

“Arriving in the darkened city in the early hours, I was met by a welcoming party keen for foreign journalists to reveal the city’s plight to the world,...So desperate were they that they bundled me into an open truck and drove at speed with the headlights on, everyone standing in the back shouting Allahu akbar — God is the greatest. Inevitably, the Syrian army opened fire....when everyone had calmed down I was driven in a small car, its lights off, along dark empty streets, the danger palpable. As we passed an open stretch of road, a Syrian Army unit fired on the car again with machine guns and launched a rocket-propelled grenade...the scale of human tragedy in the city is immense. The inhabitants are living in terror. Almost every family seems to have suffered the death or injury of a loved one.”

And, as hundreds are killled, adding to the already thousands, the world looks on. The world has abandoned them, forgotten them.  And, we cannot blame it on the media, which actually is covering the Syrian uprising in great detail.  It has been over three years since Israel's massive attack on Gaza. Perhaps, Rami al-Sayyed had thought like then, thousands upon thousands would fill the squares of Europe protesting the Israeli actions. For me this once again shows that when Arab kills Arab, it really does not interest the Western protesters.  As an Israeli citizen, I have always highlighted and protested my government's racist and violent policies. For years, I took part in protests outside of Israel. I will continue to protest. However, it is pathetic that the lives of the thousand innocent Syrians really do not matter. Yes, I am against the blockade of Gaza. However, I am also against the blockade of Homs. In 1982, without reprimand Hafiz al-Assad brutally massacred. In 2011-12 his son Bashar has continued the work.  Both times the world sat by and watched. Let it be known that I was originally against the Libyan invasion, and I am still against the Western powers entering Syria; however don't the Syrian people deserve the same humanity shown to the Palestinians.

I'll end with the last words of the killed blogger Rami al-Sayyed, calling for masses to rally:

Baba Amr (a district of Homs) is being exterminated. Do not tell me our hearts are with you because I know that. We need campaigns everwhere across the world and inside the country. People should protest in front of embassies and everywhere. Because in hours there will be no more Baba Amr. And I expect this message to be my last.


These journalists will haunt our minds. They are "dead proof" that we knew what was going on but chose to stay home and not fill the streets screaming: stop the massacre, stop the bloodshed.

Towards a New Beginning: Fatah-Hamas Reconciliation

May 8, 2011

Last week, the PLO and the Hamas has seized the moment of change in the Middle East to reach a new agreement ending over 4 years of a divided Palestinian camp. It appears with President Mubarak, a once staunch opponent of Hamas, no longer in the picture, the President of the Palestinian authority and the leader of Fatah, Mahmud Abbas realized that the time had come to work towards reconciling their differences with Hamas, the Islamic party which seized full control of the Gaza Strip. During the last four years, despite what many harsh words critics have slung at Abbas, he has lead the West Bank into prosperous times and put forth an ambitious plan to call for the establishment of a Palestinian state at the United Nations this upcoming September. In contrast, the Hamas has brought economic despair on the Gaza Strip and a failed policy which lead to the last war with Israel. Furthermore, with Syria currently undergoing political strife and Hamas remaining “neutral,” not throwing their weight behind the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, it seems safe to say that they will lose the support of one of their staunchest allies. Recently, it has been rumored that Hamas is even contemplating on moving their political wing to Qatar; if this is true, this will certainly be a move that will lead Hamas’s leader, Khaled al-Meshal to rethink his strategies. Lastly, while discussing the regional aspects of this, the signing of the reconciliation under Egyptian supervision must have came as a surprise to Turkey and its Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who has invested great efforts in the reconciliation of the two factions.

While I will not go into the details of the deal which will eventually lead to general Palestinian elections in 2012, it could not have come at a better time for the Palestinians and at a worst time for Israel which seems strikingly immobile. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even warned Abbas before the signing that it “was either us or them.” This of course would only fall on deaf ears since every Palestinian understands the dire need to reconcile their differences and stand as one government united. Israel would be wise to continue peace negotiations and realize that this actually provides a window of opportunity to reach a sound agreement. As someone who has no lost love for Hamas (to put it mildly), I understand that a peace agreement in the end will be between two governments and Israel does not have the right to choose who they negotiate with; just like the Palestinians cannot boycott talks just because Netanyahu has in his government right-wing factions that are seen as enemies of the Palestinian cause. Nevertheless, it seems that Netanyahu will use this as yet another reason to stall. During his current tenure as Prime Minister, not like his predecessors, he has not made any real attempt at jump-starting the peace process. One wonders what he is waiting for and how long Netanyahu can continue this charade. With countries lining up to support the recognition of a Palestinian state just a few months away, it seems that Israel is stuck with no real answers. If Prime Minster Netanyahu were serious he would appoint a new Foreign Minister since the current one, Avigdor Lieberman has lost all credibility in the hallways of the United Nations and with US and European diplomats. Time is running out and with a united Palestinian front Israel is being backed into a corner with little room left to maneuver (a fact regardless if you are for or against Netanyahu). Lastly, as I write this, a news article has just come out in Haaretz which reminded me of something I had meant to put in this entry: that this reconciliation could definitely help bring closer the release of Gilad Shalit, who has been held hostage by Hamas for almost five years now. Let us hope that with Fatah and Hamas reconciling their differences that a deal over the release of Shalit and Palestinian prisoners can be reached as soon as possible enabling the release of Shalit before the fifth-year anniversary of his capture which is quickly approaching. Such a deal could be a chance for Hamas to show that they understand the new reality and that if they too can work out a deal that is acceptable to both the Palestinians and the Israelis.

The Syrian Uprising: A Day of Blood and Rage

April 23, 2011

Less than a month ago, I submitted a blog entry entitled, “Now it is Syria’s Turn: The uprising on its Way?” Clearly, we can say now that yes it is here and the Assad regime has showed no signs of mercy. Since the pro-democracy protests first broke out over a month ago, over 300 people have been killed. Yesterday alone over 100 protestors were killed, and if the images emerging from Syria are authentic then the victims are also children. According to Amnesty, a 7 and 10 year child were shot dead along with a 70 year old man in the city of Izzra. In fact,with most foreign media banned from Syria and with severe restrictions on al-Jazeera and other Arab networks, which are confined to quite neighborhoods in Damascus, much of what we know reaches us from social network sites such as facebook, twitter, and youtube. Yes, April 22 2011 will be a day which will go down in history as the day Syria followed the path of Tunis and Egypt (as, I write this reports are coming in that at least eight people have been killed today during the funeral processions of those killed yesterday).

Breaking out in the coastal regions, southern cities, the major cities of Homs and Hama, it seems that it is only time until the thousands of demonstrating in the suburbs of Damascus will be able to break the gates and enter the capital. With the huge Syrian bureaucracy and security forces well penetrated deep within the society, the revolution has its work cut out. In other words, Assad’s regime will not go down easily and the Syrian opposition has not clearly emerged. The Syrian government’s claim that the opposition is just a group of radical Muslims cannot be bought, and it seems that protestors include articulate groups from among Syria’s different sects: secular and religious Sunni Muslim, the Greek Orthodox and other Christians, the Druze, and it will only take a matter of time before members of the Alawi community will join in. For the Kurds in the Northeastern parts of the country, who seemed to have been appeased following Bashar Assad granting 300,000 Kurds with citizenship, they most likely will continue to work to progress their rights within the country and will throw their support to the Syrian opposition once a clear leadership emerges.

Regionally, it seems that Turkey has failed the test with them remaining silent to the Syrian people’s will and surprisingly still supporting Bashar Assad. However, with violence in Syria hitting new heights, Turkey might need to reconsider the “no-visa entry” recently granted to Syrians to prevent a influx of refugees, and political asylum seekers. Currently, I am trying to receive statistics of how many Syrians have crossed into Turkey during the last month to check if there has been an influx of entries. Nevertheless, with years of instability in Turkey’s Southeastern provinces, Turkey must now begin to worry that perhaps the lifting of visas with Syria was premature and might even lead to an influx of Kurdish activists that do not see eye-to-eye with Turkish policy makers.

Lastly, while many people supported the western invasion of Libya, on the night of the invasion I voiced my skepticism (see link) and questioned the intentions of the US and European forces. What now remains clear is that if the revolutions are to take hold and overthrow their despotic rulers, they will need to remain in the realm of a “popular” uprising as we are seeing in Syria and Yemen; in this sense, Egpyt provided all of the Arab countries how a non-violent civil protest can lead to regime change. Sadly, people will be killed as we have seen; however, the Libyan case has shown us that outside intervention actually can add to the pain and suffering of a local population and even prevent the success of a revolution. At this moment we need to ask ourselves if it had not been for the invasion of the forces would the Libyan Qaddafi still be in power?

For now, we will need to wait and see how successful the Syrians will be at overthrowing Assad. I also do not want to speculate now if these regimes will be “better” or “worse” for the entire region at whole since nothing can justify a country that has kept its people “under lockdown" for over four decades.

Now it is Syria’s Turn: The uprising on its Way?

While many analysts thought Syria’s Bashar Assad’s regime would remain safe and sound amidst the wave of Arabs turning their countries on their head, it seems that they were wrong. During the last two weeks, protesters in the cities of Daraa and Latakia have taken to the streets, and Syria has once again showed to what extent it will go to silence opposition, opening fire and killing at least 100 protesters. The brutal regime of Hafaz Assad, inherited by his son Bashar (who never really seemed that it was his dream to inherit such a role) at last is coming to an end. Yes, it is not important anymore whether or not the recent clashes in Daraa and Latakia will translate to mass demonstrations in the capital of Damascus, clearly Assad will now have no other choice than to lead Syria on a path of democracy. If he does not do this, you can rest assured that the Syrians will do this for him. Yes, for Assad these demonstrations mark the beginning of the end.

The Syrians have lived under draconian emergency laws since 1963, and under Hafiz and Bashar Assad’s iron fist since 1971. Even if Bashar when coming to power in 2000 introduced reforms, they still cannot cover up the farce of a son inheriting the position of his father; and, they cannot cover up the fact that the whole regime is rotten at its very core. The father Assad unarguably was one of the most brutal of the Arab regimes, who will be most remembered for the 1982 massacre he orchestrated in Hama. With the Muslim Brotherhood gaining strength, the city of Hama was bombarded leaving over ten thousand people dead, with some placing the number up to thirty thousand. The massacre always stood as one of the greatest double-standards of the Middle East. While the world voiced a loud protest (rightly so) to Israel and their Lebanese counterparts for the massacre of thousands in Sabra and Shatilla refugees camps, most chose to ignore Assad’s crime. In fact, it was almost as if much of the Arab world suffered from a strong case of amnesia when it came to criticizing crimes against humanities perpetrated by leaders like Hafiz al-Assad (last blog I mentioned the massacre at Halabja committed by Saddam Hussein).


Of all the Middle East countries, perhaps Syria was one country that following the French occupation and Mandate was well on its way to democracy until the Baath party halted this. With a multi-religious makeup, including Sunni, Greek Orthodox, Druze and Alawi, among others, ideological political parties of the 1950’s offered the Syrian people a political system that potentially could cross religious and ethnic lines (there is also a large Kurdish population in Syria). This long break with the past, and years of living under fear, might actually serve as a golden opportunity, a key to unity, which will unite all Syrians. However, this will not be easy with disproportionate amount of peoples living off the huge bureaucracy, and the secret service (muhabarat) embedded in almost every nook and cranny. In Latakia, Assad’s hometown, tensions have been reported between the minority Alawi community and Sunnis; an important note: the Assad family is Alawi and not Sunni. Yes, even if this is not the main motive of all Sunnis, many seem set on taking the “power back” from the Alawi minority.

A Syria free of Assad, a free Syria, free from an outdated ideology, could offer the Middle East a genuine democracy. Just the thought of thousands of Syrians demonstrating a few weeks back seemed unimaginable. For now, we will need to wait and see how this plays out; will this produce an opposition that challenges the regime and forces them to relinquish power in the next few weeks? For now, this does not seem to be the case. However, Syria’s neighbors will need to watch closely since the status-quo has certainly taken a great blow. For Turkey, who has voiced their cautious support of the Assad regime, a new order could dampen their attempts to create a “new Middle East lead by Turkey.” For Israel, new challenges will await now that a genuine call to take back the Golan Heights through peace agreements might emerge. For Lebanon, an Assad free Syria would change all the powers, pulling the carpet of support out from under the Hezbollah, which could set off numerous crises. For Iran, this most definitely would hurt their regional prestige. This fact was read out clearly by the protesters at Daraa that chanted “No to Iran, No to Hezbollah.” I can vouch that someone who has worked on the Middle East for years, the change is refreshing.