Named after the three cities I live in, this blog will focus on Israeli, Palestinian, and Turkish politics and social issues. In addition, I will periodically cover other topics related to the Middle East.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Elegy for Turkey, Now a One-party State*
Sunday, October 25, 2015
An Election Primer: One Week to go until Turkey's Snap Elections (Turkey November 2015 election, part 2)
Unfortunately, on October 10, a little over a week after writing the election update, a massive twin suicide bombing attack went off in Ankara, killing 102 people, taking place at a peace rally, which was sponsored by labor unions, heavily attended by the mostly Kurdish left HDP party, and joined by a symbolic representation from the main opposition party, the CHP. The alleged perpetrators were ISIS sympathizers who were known by the state's internal security, highlighting its failure to prevent the attack.
Just days later, I explained in an article for Haaretz, entitled Bombs, Bans, and the Ballot Box*, why the attack had not come as a surprise:
Over the course of the last few months, the mostly Kurdish HDP has been the target of violent attacks, including a deadly bomb attack at their election rally just two days before the June 7 parliamentary elections, and an ISIS linked-suicide attack targeting a socialist youth group affiliated with the HDP on July 20, killing 33. These major security breaches made it clear to all that another attack was highly likely. Last month, HDP offices around Turkey were vandalized and burnt to the ground in racist attacks, with the police remaining largely indifferent.
and the following:
Sadly, the Ankara bombing victims make up just part of Turkey’s rampant death toll during the last few months. Since the June elections, over 600 Turkish citizens have been killed, whether in terrorist attacks, or Turkish security forces by the PKK, or in operations carried out by the Turkish army in the southeast of the country which is under partial military curfew, or PKK fighters (who are also Turkish citizens) killed by the army. Indeed, during the elections Erdogan insisted that only an absolute AKP majority would ensure Turkey’s “peaceful” transition to a new presidential system, leaving many to believe that he was actually threatening the electorate, and that things could get messy if it did not give the AKP a clear majority. Regardless of what he actually meant, his prediction seems to have been right on.
The bombings left Turkey in a state of shock, leaving the country more polarized than ever.
So, now, what is in store for next week?
Since the summer, most polls have predicted more-or-less the same results as the June 7 elections, with it most likely leaving the AKP, and the other parties, in a similar dilemma. Nevertheless, here are my impressions of the election campaign and what we might learn from the last few months:
1. For the current election, despite still clearly in control of the party, Erdogan has learned that the electorate has become tired of his polarizing politics, and thus took a step back in attempt to look more "presidential." However, the problem is that without Erdogan, it seems Davutoglu is not the best candidate to energize the masses, and he seems to have better luck in his normal role as a professor in the classroom, or a politician working behind the scenes. In fact, in a recent poll, when asked which leader do you think is most successful, Davutoglu got a measly 4%, with Erdogan getting the highest, with his numbers showing a decline as well.
2. Lately, Davutoglu also seems to be taking the route of polarizing politics, which certainly will not bring new votes in-especially the Kurdish voters who flocked in masses to the HDP. First, he showed a great amount of insensitivity towards the victims and families of the Ankara bombing, stating just over a week after the bombings that the AKP had seen a surge in the polls following the attack.
If this was not enough, Davutoglu also recently commented that if the AKP is unseated, the Southeastern Kurdish regions could see the return of "white Toros" brand cars back on the streets. This has been interpreted by many as a threat since that automobile model was notorious in the 1990s of being used by gangs believed to be undercover security forces, who caused havoc on the civilian population, while whisking away people, often never to be seen again. Whether a threat or not, just the mention of it brings back dark memories for many Kurds.
3. For the reasons stated above, it seems hard to imagine that the AKP will gain votes, with common sense pointing to it actually losing support. However, if it does gain votes, this will be attributed to the fact that many Turkish people simply see that stability trumps the chaos experienced in the last few months, and will not be attributed to Davutoglu's campaign.
5. Due to the election process, despite getting 16.3% of the vote, the MHP ended up with the same number of seats in the parliament as the HDP, which recieved 13.1 % (following the defection of one of their candidates to the AKP). Therefore, it is clear that this elections could deal a fatal blow to the MHP, if its numbers drop and the HDP votes surge, which would make it the smallest party in the parliament. For now, its leader, Devlet Bahceli is holding the party's reins tight, even after having Tugrul Turkes (the son of the iconic party founder, Alparslan Turkes) defect to the AKP. However, if its numbers drop, it is hard to imagine that Bahceli will be able to hold on to the party much longer. In the meantime, any extra votes to the MHP will hit at the AKP chances of gaining new votes.
6. The million-dollar question in this election is if the HDP can maintain, or even increase its votes, in this election. It was this party's crossing the 10% threshold that shook the Turkish politics at its core. It seems safe to say it will cross the 10% threshold again (if it does not this will increase fears of election fraud). However, with violence and military curfews being enforced over many of the Kurdish regions, election observers need to be diligent in making sure the vote is transparent and voters are able without hindrance to cast their votes.
The HDP, under the numerous attacks, which in addition to the bombings included the looting and burning down of their offices throughout the country, obviously could not put on the dynamic campaign it did leading up to the June elections. However, its charismatic co-chairman Selahattin Demirtas has demonstrated his dedication to keep the party on track, and has proven his ability to be a major player in Turkish political system for a long time coming. If the party loses votes, this could be attributed to its lack of influence in getting the PKK to stop attacks against the Turkish military (regardless if this is a realistic claim or not). However, this could be offset by a new group of silent voters who have been influenced by the party's motivation to run a clean campaign that still offers a genuine voice to Turkey's minorities and its dedication to change the "old system" of Turkey once and for all.
While a coalition government following the next elections seems likely, we will need to wait until then to discuss the possibilities! Let us hope that whatever the outcome, Turkey will see brighter days in the near future.
*The article is also featured on my blog
Saturday, October 17, 2015
Bombings, Bans and the Ballot-box Turkey on Edge*
Just hours after the attack, the Turkish government declared an official three-day mourning period in recognition of the nation’s largest terrorist attack ever. The finger of blame is increasingly being pointed at Islamic State, or ISIS, sympathizers. However, rather than uniting Turkey, the bombing only has strengthened existing divisions.
After the initial shock of the sheer scope of the bombing, anger was the reaction of many to the bombing - directed at the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the religiously conservative AKP interim-election government, led by the Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. For many Turkish citizens it was no surprise that such an attack had happened to begin with.
Over the course of the last few months, the mostly Kurdish HDP has been the target of violent attacks, including a deadly bomb attack at their election rally just two days before the June 7 parliamentary elections, and an ISIS linked-suicide attack targeting a socialist youth group affiliated with the HDP on July 20, killing 33. These major security breaches made it clear to all that another attack was highly likely. Last month, HDP offices around Turkey were vandalized and burnt to the ground in racist attacks, with the police remaining largely indifferent.
Of course, things soured for Erdogan’s AKP following those June elections, when it lost its parliamentary majority, and the HDP crossed the 10% voter threshold. This lead to political deadlock, since the AKP was not able to form either a coalition with the main opposition CHP, or a narrow government with the nationalist MHP, leading the country to snap-elections to be held on November 1.
Both Erdogan and Davutoglu have done their utmost to delegitimize the HDP, a campaign that began even before the June general elections, once it was clear that the HDP would not support Erdogan’s quest to allocate further extensive powers to the presidency that he holds. Following the elections, the embryonic peace process facilitated by Kurdish MPs between the outlawed Kurdish separatist movement, the PKK, and the Turkish state collapsed, both sides now fully immersed in fighting each other.
Following the Ankara attack, HDP’s head, Selahattin Demirtas, lashed out at the government claiming not only was it delinquent in preventing the bombing but that members of the state institutions were also complicit in the attack. No evidence was provided, but for some in Turkey such a damning accusation didn’t seem so far from an obvious truth; many others believe that Ankara has consistently turned a blind eye to ISIS sympathizers, with fatal results.
While the AKP denies these claims as completely preposterous, Turkey’s long history of its intelligence services working within its own autonomous and unaccountable set of rules fuels such claims. Indeed, on Wednesday an Ankara court upheld the government’s request for a complete media blackout on the bombing (covering “all kinds of news, interviews, criticism and similar publications in print, visual, social media and all kinds of Internet media”) only heightening the suspicion that few details will ever come to light. The ban came into effect just as reports that the suicide bombers had been identified; both were known to the police and intelligence services, one suspect's brother is said to have committed a suicide bombing blamed on ISIS only three months earlier
The fear that the full account of the attack will never come to light is hardly unfounded in recent Turkish history: in the past, when the media was banned from reporting on specific events, such as the 2011 Uludere affair (34 Kurdish civilians mistakenly believed to be PKK terrorists killed in an airstrike), or the 2014 alleged transfer of Turkish arms to Islamist radical groups in Syria, perhaps even to ISIS, the censorship seemed to have been aimed at covering up government complicity, with the benefit of a complete lack of transparency.
The media ban is the latest expression of an accelerating clampdown on a free press in Turkey. Just a day before the bombing the editor of the English-language newspaper Todays Zaman, Bulent Kenes, was arrested on live television for allegedly “insulting” Erdogan, while two other journalists joined a long list of other citizens found guilty of insulting Erdogan. Fortunately this week Kenes was released but still faces prison if found guilty.
Sadly, the Ankara bombing victims make up just part of Turkey’s rampant death toll during the last few months. Since the June elections, over 600 Turkish citizens have been killed, whether in terrorist attacks, or Turkish security forces by the PKK, or in operations carried out by the Turkish army in the southeast of the country which is under partial military curfew, or PKK fighters (who are also Turkish citizens) killed by the army. Indeed, during the elections Erdogan insisted that only an absolute AKP majority would ensure Turkey’s “peaceful” transition to a new presidential system, leaving many to believe that he was actually threatening the electorate, and that things could get messy if it did not give the AKP a clear majority. Regardless of what he actually meant, his prediction seems to have been right on.
The AKP has radically failed on numerous fronts. If it had not been for the main opposition CHP leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, whose leadership bridges the country’s dangerous political polarization, and the determination of the opposition parties, Turkey could have very well have run off the rails of democracy by now. However, a culture of fear is consolidating in Turkey, and its effects will reverberate not only over the coming fortnight preceding the general elections, but in the weeks and months following it as well.
This week, Turkey’s national football team took on Iceland in the conservative city of Konya, an AKP stronghold. Jeers and whistles marred the moment of silence for those killed in Ankara. The lessons of the bombing have clearly still not been learnt.
*This article appeared in Haaretz on 15 October 2015, please click here for article.
Monday, June 8, 2015
The Real Winner is Hope! A Look at the Turkish Election results
This number of seats have not been finalized and are fluctuating; however tehy will remain within one-two seats of the above estimate. Source Hurriyet |

Sunday, February 8, 2015
The Turkish State against Frederike Geerdink*

Friday, November 21, 2014
This one is for Kobane: Kader will not return home, will the refugees be able to?
I wonder what is here (in Kobane)? Petrol? Gold? Diamonds? (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, October 31, 2014)
Recent picture of Kader Ortakaya |
![]() |
The funeral of Kader Ortakaya |
Saturday, November 3, 2012
A Hunger Strike:An Opposition behind Bars
![]() |
Kurds in Turkey's western city of Adana protest in the name of the hunger strikers |
Friday, March 16, 2012
Two Long Years For Cihan (upcoming court date March 23)
![]() |
Cihan: two years under arrest |
On March 23, once again Cihan Kırmızıgül will be brought before a court in Besiktas. Over two years ago, on a chilly winter morning, Cihan, while waiting for a bus, found himself wrapped up not only in a keffiyeh to keep him warm but also in a court case that has gone on far too long; one that again has proven the Turkish legal system as falling short of protecting the "right of innocence until proven guilty."
All evidence and common sense points to the fact that Cihan had nothing to do with the protesters chanting Kurdish slogans, who clashed with police and threw molotov cocktails targeting a neighborhood market. Rather, he was an innocent bystander who happened to be wearing a keffiyeh, one similar to those who committed the attack. With no other evidence linking him to the crime other than the keffiyeh, Cihan has been held for over two years in solitary confinement charged with taking part in an act of terror. All common sense would lead to the simple understanding that that Cihan was at the wrong place at the wrong time, and certainly the fact that he is of Kurdish origin led to the apparent false charges. Yes, for this he has been held in a F-type solitary cell. If this Kafkaesque scenario was not enough, the prosecutor has called for a 45-year term sentence, if he is found guilty of the crime
Cihan is 23 years old, one of four children, whose family migrated from Adiyaman to Adana, and later came ot study industrial engineering at Galatasaray University. Importantly, many of the Galatasaray faculty have been following the case closely, and have been present at his hearings. I might add that he has no criminal record and apparently is just what he adds up to be: a serious young aspiring bright student, someone who in normal circumstances should be a poster-boy for Turkey's education system: a youngster of Kurdish origin, from a rural background, that despite all the cards stacked up against him reached the top and integrated into one of Turkey's most prestigious public institutions. Truly, this is a tragedy.
Unfortunately, Cihan is joined by about 600 students who have found themselves behind bars awaiting trial. Different than Cihan's case these students were arrested for peaceful protests that they held on university campuses targeting government policies and often disrupting speeches made by politicians. These students are being held on numerous inflated charges, with some facing decades in jail if found guilty.
This week, the two well-known journalists, Ahmet Sik and Nedim Sener were released after their 375 days spent in jail on suspicion of being related to the Ergenekon plot. Lets hope that their release marks a change in the Turkish judicial system, and more importantly that the Turkish government take the necessary steps that laws are passed to protect its citizens from such injustices. If Cihan is released on March 23 this will be another step in the right direction.
For more information on the fate of students and professors being held see:
the English website of the Transnational Work Group on Academic Liberty and Freedom of Research in Turkey:
http://gitamerica.blogspot.com/ where you can connect to a site also in Turkish, French, German, and Italian.
and the Turkish site, ran by students: http://www.mechulogrenci.com/basinda-cikanlar
Friday, July 15, 2011
A Sad Reminder about the Kurdish Question
As someone who has lived with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict for over the last two decades of my life, I was sad and frustrated when hearing about the 13 soldiers killed in eastern Turkey yesterday. Like a ritual I am too far familiar with, I waited until the morning to read the names of the fallen soldiers, to hear their stories, to find out who they were; to find out who the people in the uniforms really were. I also read alternative news sources to learn about the other side, the Kurdish fighters killed; understanding that both the soldiers and the ones fighting are both Turkish citizens; both caught up in a struggle which has gone on far too long. While there are counter narratives at what happened, I do not find comfort in any of the sources. Last night, the dreams of young people were snatched away by gunfire and explosion, leaving their families to mourn for days, months, years, and lifetimes.
The clashes come at a time of great uncertainty in Turkey. Following the elections, some of the independent candidates affiliated with the mostly Kurdish Peace and Democratic Party (BDP), have been blocked from entering the parliament due to the fact that they are awaiting trial for crimes related to belonging to an affiliate group of the outlawed PKK Kurdish Workers Party. Topping the list is Hatip Dicle, plus six others out of the total of 36 independent candidates, who are barred from entering the parliament. It is important to point out also that in the case of Hatip Dicle, the Supreme Election Council (YSK) approved his candidacy previous to the election and only after his victory did they announce that they would not accept his candidacy handing the parliamentary seat over the to the ruling AK party candidate. Until now, no compromise has been reached and the 36 elected members of parliament have made it clear that they will not enter parliament until every last one of their members are allowed to enter parliament.
If this was not enough, the Democratic Society Congress (DTK), an umbrella group for Kurdish groups has declared they are aiming for democratic autonomy, something that stands in complete contradiction to the Turkish state, with even the ruling AK party, once sympathetic to Kurdish aspirations, not even coming close to accepting. The congress’s findings were announced by Aysel Tugluk a BDP elected MP, who stated that the “Kurdish people do not want to be a non-status population anymore. There is no other population in the world like Kurds, which include 40 million people and do not have rights. We, as Kurdish people, are declaring our democratic sovereignty, holding to Turkey’s national unity on the basis of an understanding of a common motherland, territorial unity and the perspective of a democratic nation.”
While it was clear that the Kurdish demands have risen, something to be expected after securing such an important block in the parliament, it is incumbent upon them to ensure that the Kurdish struggle remains within the realm of civil action and that they work hard to secure a new ceasefire between the Turkish state and the PKK. Even if the BDP supports passive resistance and knows that the Kurdish citizens of Turkey have gained more through civil struggle than military, on this day it needs to reiterated. Likewise, the AK party and the opposition People's Republican Party (CHP) need to quickly find a solution to the parliamentary crisis and to ensure that work on a new constitution can begin which will offer the Kurdish society rights which they have been demanding for decades. The alternative is more bloodshed and violence; something that if it is not dealt with effectively will certainly only get worse.
For articles on this topic see:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=dtk-declares-democratic-sovereignty-2011-07-15