How Turkey misread the Egyptian Political Map

Following the recent Egyptian army’s military coup that ousted its democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, the Turkish government immediately announced its disappointment, and unsuccessfully campaigned internationally to have it reversed. Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stated that “No matter where they are ... coups are bad.... Coups are clearly enemies of democracy,” and went on to describe the negative effects coups had had on Turkish history. Reiterating his thoughts, his Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutolgu, called on the military to integrate Morsi back into politics, and claimed that the military coup was a counter revolution masterminded by “internal and external actors who wanted the continuation of the [Hosni Mubarak] era paradigms.” He also compared the military coup in Egypt with those in Turkey’s past.

There is no doubt that with Turkey’s past history with military coups, and the Turkish government’s strengthening of the state’s institution to prevent further ones, many in Turkey affiliated with the government saw their state as a model for the Egyptian case; further, following Morsi’s winning of the presidency, Erdogan took Morsi under his wing, acting somewhat of a mentor, guiding him on how a Muslim conservative government could defy an anti-democratic secular elite. In fact, Morsi was even showcased at last year’s AK party convention, where he was awarded up to two billion dollars in loans and support from Turkey, which significantly poised the Middle East with a new reality: no longer would countries in the region have to look to the US or Russia for support, or to the Arab Oil states, now Turkey was in the game.

Throughout all of this however, the Turkish government, and many of the Turkish sympathizers of President Morsi, have missed one important point: Egypt is not Turkey. Historically, the two countries could not be farther apart from one another. While many in Turkey are quick to point out the shared past of Turkey and Egypt under the Ottoman Empire, few scrutinize this claim; yes, for Turks longing for a glorious past, the Ottoman years in Egypt seems quite vivid; yet, they miss the fact that since the early 19^th century the Ottomans never had any direct rule over the country that eventually fell to British occupation in 1882. While the Albanian Ottoman officer, Mehmet Ali, and his descendants who turned into Egypt’s royal family and were eventually overthrown by the Young Officers in 1952, did speak Turkish, Egypt’s political map developed independently of the Ottoman Empire. In fact, much of what can be envisioned as the “Turkish” past, has just as much to do with Egypt’s Mamluk past than its Ottoman one.    

While Erdogan has worked to compare the fate of Mohammed Morsi, to those who suffered coups at the hands of the Turkish military, the comparison stops there. Any scholar of Egypt can attest to the fact that unlike Turkish history, Egyptian history is rich with popular uprisings and challenges to the state: from the Urabi revolt, to the Dinshaway Incidents, the 1919 revolution ignited by the Wafd incidents, the Egyptian revolution lead by the Free Officers Movement (leading to the renowned rule of Gamal Abdul Nassar), to the 1977 bread riots, Egyptians have a long history of hitting the streets to challenge Ottoman, British colonial, and Egyptian led governments. It is in this context that which the January 25 uprising, and the more recent June 30 one, which led to a military coup, need to be placed.

In other words, there is little comparison to the Turkish case, where the military-secular elite took the reins of the government, aiming to keep the state within their parameters of Kemalist ideology, which has developed for almost a century; while parallel to this the AK party emerged in 2002 as the result of a growing civil demand to once and for all remove the military completely from the public sphere. Not to mention the fact that Erdogan himself, by serving as the mayor of Istanbul, was a well-known politician who had built up credibility over years of public service, and importantly integrated elements of Kemalism in his own party’s platform and worldview. In other words, comparing the rise of the AK party to that of Morsi’s FJP party (affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood) is also quite far-fetched since it carries few similarities.         

In short, Turkish policy makers that treated Morsi and the recent coup, as if this was parallel to the Turkish case, have completely misread the Egyptian political map. I think few would argue with Erdogan’s claim that military coups are enemies of democracy, including many Egyptians in Tahrir Square who called for Morsi’s resignation; however, by discrediting the millions of Egyptians who took to the streets as not having legitimate claims and accusing them of not abiding by the rules of democracy, only blurs the reality that what occurred in Egypt had also a great deal to do with Morsi’s poor leadership and the fears of a large part of the Egyptian people who believed Morsi was set on implementing an authoritarian state similar to the one they had rejected two years ago. In other words, what we recently witnessed in Egypt was a continuation of the revolution that started two years ago; unfortunately, Morsi underestimated the army, and in place of working for a compromise, he opted for all-or-nothing, a price that Egypt is paying for today, with the military working under a similar approach violently cracking down on the Morsi camp.

Certainly, as violence continues to grow in Egypt, with Morsi’s return further away than ever, Turkey will need to stand two-steps back and reassess its relationship with Egypt; however, regardless of which group emerges from the current power struggle, it seems that Egyptians are more skeptical than ever concerning Turkey’s future role. Perhaps, this is the reason for the recent change: after the Turkish government vowed not to recognize Adly Mansour’s presidency, last Wednesday, Turkish President Abdullah Gul sent Mansour a message conveying good tidings on Egypt’s national day. This seems to be the first sign that Turkey is looking for away to safely climb down from the tree in an attempt to cut its losses. 

This approach is especially important as Egypt's witnesses its second massacre of Morsi supporters. If Turkey really wants to secure stability in Egypt then it will have to remove its status as an advocate of Morsi, and start to work under realpolitik, or even "damage control," to take every possible step that will contribute to a peaceful solution and place Egypt back on a democratic path; since as we have seen the continued stalemate (deterioration of the situation) is only to the detriment of the Egyptian people, not to mention Turkey's credibility in the region at large.  

  

The Gaza Crisis: Some thoughts on Region and Questions to Israel

The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, seems to have read the region well before he started the recent military campaign in Gaza. With the Middle East in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Syria in the midst of a civil war, and Turkish-Israeli relations at the lowest point ever, Israel will be able to continue with their military operation with little interference.

Since the overthrowing of Hosni Mubarak, Israeli-Egyptian relations have been put to a test.  The new president, Mohammad Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood which is aligned with Hamas, has had to walk a tight rope between pleasing his constituency and keeping the US satisfied. Clearly, for Israel, this marked a change; Mubarak, had been a strong ally of the Jewish state: Egypt, together with Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and Saudi Arabia, had unofficial alliance against Hamas, and served as a force countering Hezbollah.

Immediately before the Israeli escalation, which was set off by the assassination of the Hamas military leader, Ahmad al-Jabari, Egypt had been in the midst of writing up a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel. The fact that Israel chose to disrespect the Egyptian efforts (something they did to Turkish PM Erdogan right before Operation Cast-Lead), must have outraged Morsi to no end; once the Israeli massive bombardment of the Strip began, the Egyptian ambassador to Israel was recalled. Nevertheless, just two days later it seems that all eyes are on Egpyt to broker a deal. Just this morning the Egyptian PM, Hesham Kandil, paid a visit to Gaza. On Sunday, Erdogan will be arriving for an already planned visit aimed at boosting economic ties between Egypt and Turkey, and the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon will arrive to Cairo on Tuesday.  In other words, Egypt is still in the picture and it seems that Morsi will continue to straddle the tight rope, at least in the near future. However, if the Israeli Operation turns into a long term operation, similar to Operation Cast Lead, which took place almost four years ago, Israel could be entering dangerous waters, perhaps crossing a line in which they will not be able to salvage their relations with Egypt. Of course, Israel knows this, and it seems like they will work to cut this operation short.

On Israel’s northern front, Hezbollah opted not to act during the last major Israeli operation in Gaza (it did so in the summer 2007), so it is unlikely that they will now. Especially, since there main supporter in the region, Syria, is caught up in a civil war. The fact that the Assad regime has managed to kill over 30,000 of his citizens, has taken a great deal of support away from the Palestinian cause, also making the Israelis work a bit easier. Put bluntly, who in Syria will look towards defending the Palestinian cause when they are struggling and dying on a daily basis, with almost 500,000 Syrian refugees dispersed in the surrounding countries.  As for the Hezbollah, they too know that any misguided act could throw Lebanon into chaos, something which would not serve them well for now. It seems that the Israeli government also took these issues into consideration.

Perhaps, most important of all is Turkey. During the last decade, Israeli-Turkish relations have deteriorated. While most attribute this solely to PM Erodgan, we need to keep in mind that the Turkish people have always been overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian. In fact, warm relations with Israel have always been contingent on Israel’s progress at securing a peace deal with the Palestinians. Some might be surprised that Erdogan, during the first years of his tenure, breathed new life in the relations with Israel, after his predecessor, the late (secular) Bulent Ecevit, accused Israelis of committing genocide in the Jenin Refugee camp in 2002. Now that Erdogan has taken the reins of the Turkish state away from the Turkish army command, Israel is left with no internal support. Ironically, due to Turkey’s placing Israeli-Turkish ties on hold following the Gaza Flotilla incident, there is little Turkey can do for the Palestinians. Last year, in an article published in Haaretz (translated to Turkish in Radikal), I argued that if Erdogan really wanted to help the Palestinians, he would have to strengthen his ties with Israel. The current Gaza affair has shown how true this is. With no ambassador, and minimal diplomatic ties, what can Erdogan do?

For now, it seems Erdogan will use the strengthening of relations with Egypt as a way to pressure Israel, perhaps even establishing a strategic military alliance. While some analysts are speculating that in the post Arab Spring period, Turkey and Egypt will compete for regional hegemony, we need to remember that recently Turkey loaned Egypt one billion dollars. Egypt needs Turkey, and economically, Turkey needs to branch out into new markets. Further, the loan deal should also be seen as a tide change in regional trends since for decades Egypt has relied solely on US financial support. 

Now to the Iranians; it seems that they must know that the current Israeli operation in Gaza, very well could be preparing the Israeli home front for a war with Iran.  One of the Israeli scenarios was if they went to war with Iran, Hamas would join in, causing havoc on the southern front. However, with a beaten Hamas, Israel will be able to focus on its northern front, in case Iran has Hezbollah join the escapade. Further, an obvious outcome of the current conflict, even if not planned, is with Hamas rockets falling on the Tel Aviv metropolitan are, the Israeli government will be able to assess the overall situation, if in the not too-far-future, Iran's missiles will be falling on Israel's largest population center.   

Perhaps Netanyahu, along with his FM, Avigdor Lieberman, who seems keen on wrecking all of Israeli ties with Arab and Muslim countries, might have taken all of the above scenarios into consideration. However, with all the political gambles being taken, it seems that they still are far from answering the real questions: How much longer will Israel be able to remain an isolated Middle East state, occupying Palestinian territories? Why would they exchange a peace with Egypt,  albeit a cold one, for a hostile one? Why does the current government not do more to improve their relations with Turkey, since it was Israel who led the botched Flotilla campaign. Why have they recently threatened to topple Palestinian moderates, like Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas?

If you get rid of Abbas, who will Israel speak with?

The essential question really then is what are the Israelis waiting for?  If the Israeli electorate does not wake up and pressure their leaders to work towards a comprehensive agreement they might find themselves living in a de facto bi-national state, one that will need to rely on an apartheid system to continue its existence. Time is running out, and an operation in Gaza will do little to solve Israel's real existential questions. 

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Syria Bleeds...

Graffiti from an Istanbul wall.....

Reports coming from Syria yesterday estimated over 200 people were killed in fighting. Long gone are the days, the weeks, and the months, when Syrians were peacefully protesting, marching directly into the aim of fire. When the protests started, men, women, and children, together marched and together were killed. In the hearts of free loving Syrians, regardless of Muslim, Christian, Alawi, or Druze, this protest was not about sectarian differences, this was about bringing down a government that had lost any legitimacy; bringing down a President who inherited his seat and was not able to reform the corrupt and oppressive government of his father Hafiz al-Assad. Bashar al-Assad was even given a second chance following the breakout of the revolution, when the protesters demanded reform; but he decided to fight and in so has caused death and destruction beyond belief. Over the last six months, things have got much more complicated with Turkey and the Gulf states supporting the Free Syrian army (backed by the US), while Iran supporting Assad (backed by Russia), leading to all out chaos in many parts of Syria, and a stalemate that has no end in sight.   

Do not believe the cynics who claim that bloodshed in the Middle East is inevitable, and that due to age-old conflicts its various religions and ethnicities can never coexist. As proof they will direct you to civil strife between Shia and Sunni in Iraq; if not, they will pull out the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and will try to convince you that the conflict is not a century old, but a clash of civilizations dating back over a thousand years.  However, the bloodshed we are encountering in Syria (and other parts of the Middle East) should teach us that wars just don’t happen and there is nothing natural about them.  The stalemate today in Syria is a result of regional superpowers, supported by greater powers, which are using Syria as their killing field, much in the way it happened in Lebanon during the 1970s and 1980s.   

As someone who supported the revolution since its first days, we cannot forget that in Syria there was no alternative to revolution.  However, as an outsider, it is becoming more and more difficult to understand the rampant violence and frustrating to see that the violence is greatly due to the manipulation of divided world.  Today, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Iranian President Ahmedinejad  discussed the situation in Syria; tomorrow, Russia and the United States will discuss matters; the following day, the United Nations will once again condemn Russia; next week, the European Union will place another embargo on Syria; all this when more Syrians are killed and are made refugees.     

The longer these powers do not do their utmost to bring a halt to the violence and work to find a solution the more violent this conflict will become. The biggest fear is that even if Assad is forced to step down, the violence in Syria will have crossed the threshold of no return, and they will continue to pay the high cost of a war that long forgot the spirit of the revolution’s first days. 

Today, over 30,000 have been killed and there are over 300,000 Syrian refugees in camps spread out between Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq; not to mention the tens of thousands in the cities of these countries, who remain unaccounted for. With winter just around the corner the situation looks as bleak as ever.    

Lacking a Clear Vision: Turkey Strikes back at Syria

Turkey’s recent strike on Syria was portrayed both in Turkey and in the world as Turkey acting out of its right to defend itself. However, if the Turkish government did not receive international support for the move, and was not pressured domestically, then the question remains why the change in policy. Let me be clear, Turkey has the right to defend itself; however, Syrian mortar fire falling on the Turkish side of the border is far from being an attack on Turkish sovereignty.

Following the Turkish reprisal, the US and the UN, and NATO, publicly supported Turkey, strongly condemning Syria.  However, I imagine behind closed doors there was a different reaction. The US paid lip service to Turkey, while the UN still has its hands tied due to Russia’s support of Syria. During the last six months of conflict, Turkey has often reminded NATO that under article 5 an attack on Turkey should be considered an attack on all participating countries. However, NATO just does not see Syria as posing a threat to the Turkish state and perceives the mortar fire as not more than a nuisance. In short, on the diplomatic front this attack has been another letdown. If Turkey keeps up the way it has, it will continue to lose its prestige within the eyes of Europe and the US.  

Internally there are those Turkish citizens who supported the reprisal; however, it seems that majority are not interested in heating up tensions between the two countries, and do not wish for their country to get militarily involved in the Syrian quagmire.  Furthermore, while Turkish casualties from the Syrian mortar are sad, internal violence and death in Turkey due to the ongoing Kurdish conflict is much more serious. Just this year, almost one hundred Turkish soldiers and police have been killed and the government seems as far as ever from reaching an understanding with the outlawed Kurdish organization, the PKK. It is easy for Turkey to raise its head and invoke some national pride by firing back at Syria, but its real work remains at home.  

Therefore, the question remains why did Turkey choose to retaliate against Syria, and even go so far to pass a bill in parliament allowing Turkish troops to cross into foreign countries.  In my opinion, the change in Turkish policy emerges due to the realization that the Free Syrian Army (FSA) divisions, which Turkey has been supporting, are losing ground. In other words, Turkey’s strengthening of its border is aimed at boosting up the FSA, who are trapped between the Turkish border and the Syrian army. Without Turkish action the FSA could in some places be pushed back into Turkish territory. Next, after Turkey’s failure at securing UN support for a buffer zone in Syria to house refugees  (see previous blog), it seems that the Turkish reprisal is bringing us one step closer to Turkey achieving that goal.  

Whether or not my analysis is correct, one point remains clear. From one failed policy to another, Turkey has been acting out of damage control and lacks a clear vision when it comes to Syria. It is for this reason the Turkish reprisal is worrying since this very well could be the opening of the door to greater Turkish military involvement in Syria; not tomorrow, or the next day, but certainly in the next few months.

Perhaps most worrying hitherto is that the FSA divisions Turkey is supporting seem to be an unruly group of radical Islamic factions, who are also wreaking havoc on the Syrian people and lack the vision and spirit of the revolution. Thus, I imagine that many of the pro-democratic anti-Assad forces are also unhappy with the Turkish involvement, leaving Turkey with many more enemies than friends in Syria. 

Revolutions, a Film, and Obama: A Look at the recent anti-US Protest in the Middle East

Recently, news from the Middle East does not look good.  Last week, anti-American riots broke out in Egypt as the result of an obscure cheaply produced amateur film degrading Muhammad, the Muslim prophet.  Parallel to this, and seemingly not related to the film, an anti-American group of fighters (perhaps motivated by al-Qaeda) carried out a well planned attack on the American consulate in Libya, killing the US ambassador, Chris Stevens. Following the riots and the killing of the ambassador, a wave of commentary has emerged questioning whether or not the Arab uprisings, coined the Arab Spring, was “good” for the US, Europe, or even the Arabs themselves.

The fickleness demonstrated by so many concerning the Arab Spring is not new.  After the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Muhammad Mursi, in the Egyptian Presidential elections, some western news outlets covering the elections made it sound like it was doomed to become another Islamic Republic of Iran.  Now that Syria has fallen into a civil war, some in the world long for the days when Syrians never dared make a peep about their unhappiness with Bashar Assad’s totalitarian regime.     

If one supports, or does not support, the Arab uprisings, we all need to recognize the fact that there was no alternative to the revolutions, and we cannot turn the clock back. Revolutions happen not because one party supports one way or the other. They emerge due to deep desperation and the will of the people to make change. Yes, the Middle East has been thrown into a tumultuous and chaotic period; however, this should be expected due to the fact that for decades a tight lid was kept on their societies with their leaders ruling through coercion and corruption, losing all legitimacy in the eyes of their people. 

The short film, Innocence of Muslims, which sparked off the anti-American riots is not the source of hate for the US, only the catalyst.  While the killing of the ambassador is sad and frustrating it should not come as a surprise. The Americans are not a neutral partner in the unfolding of events and they cannot expect to remain unscathed.  The US is an integral part of the old order, which the masses rebelled against.  It was the US that propped up for years the late Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. It is the US that has not been able to pressure Israel to move towards a peace agreement and end its 45 years of the occupation of Palestinian lands.  It is the US, which invaded Iraq on false pretensions and left the country in shambles, which under their command introduced new levels of violence to the region.

For those who keep criticizing the Arab uprisings and asking if they were good for the West, don’t forget this revolution belongs to the Arab people, not to Washington, or NATO. For the US to regain the trust of the people, taking measures at damage control will not suffice, but rather a serious reassessment of the US role in the Middle East which treats the regimes as equals and not as their cronies.  In the mean time, the US will also have to bear the backlash of violence and anger that they themselves sowed. 

On the flip side of the coin, the new Arab governments have shown that they are interested in stability and retaining relations with the US.  Moreover, we can breathe a sigh of relief because until now violent protests against the US have been directed at government offices and not at its citizens who reside in these countries. 

If Obama is reelected, the US will have a golden opportunity to show the region that they are serious about change, something way beyond the reach of Mitt Romney and the Republicans.  Moreover, President Obama will have the perfect opportunity to show the world that he did not win in 2009 the Nobel Peace prize in vain. A second term will allow him to make his stamp on the future of the Middle East, hopefully, one with an independent Palestine. What is for sure, time is not on his side.      

The Death of Moshe Silman: An Israeli Tragedy

A weekly protest for social justice taken July 7 2012

This last week a lot happened in Israel. From the tragic terrorist attack on Israelis in Bourgas Bulgaria, to Kadima’s pulling out of the government, the news channels have been filled with plenty of “headlines." These headlines also included the death of Moshe Silman, a protestor who was became known among the protesters in Haifa as someone dedicated the cause.  On July 14, at the weekly protests set at reigniting last year’s massive protests Moshe Silman set himself on fire as a last attempt to have the government recognize and address his difficult social situation.  The video itself of him setting himself was shocking to say the least, with ninety percent of his body receiving burns.  Once set on fire, the shocked crowds around him did everything possible to put out the flames, dowsing him with what little bottle water they had and hitting with any materials they had to extinguish the fire.  Once put out, Moshe managed to prop himself up and shout a few slogans calling for tsedek hevreti-social justice, then ate a popsicle which a policeman gave him, and finally was whisked away by an ambulance. On Friday, July 20, he died.  Since his case, other desperate people have set themselves on fire. 

I could go into details about Moshe’s story; however, I choose not to. For those who wish to read more about him (see link for one I suggest), there is plenty of news articles dedicated to his life and the daily struggles he faced to stay afloat, to work with pride, and to live in decent housing.  Moshe is the story of so many struggling Israelis.  On my last trip to Israel, and with every passing trip, I am always shocked at the deterioration of the Israel society. The gap between rich and poor is striking and the injustices can be seen with little effort. The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had the nerve to say that Moshe Silman’s story was one of a personal tragedy.  What hutzpah! We should not and will not forget Moshe Silman, the one who dared to challenge the Israeli injustices, to stand face-to-face with the bureaucratic machine which even if it ends up providing social services does so only after a humiliating journey.   

                                  

Below is the translated letter left by Moshe Silman (published on the following blog entry which also provides a detailed and eyewitness account of the event including pictures, which I have chosen not to reproduce). It says it all; I will not comment:

The State of Israel has stolen from me and robbed me, left me with nothing,
and the Tel Aviv District Court blocked me from getting justice.
The registrar at the Tel Aviv District court, broke the law, disrupted legal proceedings, out of condescension.
It won’t even assist me with my rental fees
Two committees from the Ministry of Housing have rejected me, despite the fact that I have undergone a stroke and was granted 100 percent work disability
Ask the manager of [state-owned housing company] Amidar, in Hafia, on Hanevi’im Street.
I blame the State of Israel
I blame Bibi Netanyahu
and [Minister of Finance] Yuval Steinitz
both scum
for the humiliation that disenfranchised citizens go through day in and day out, that take from the poor and give to the rich, and to public servants
those that serve the State of Israel
The National Health Insurance, especially the manager of their operations, and the manager of their claims department, on Lincoln Street in Tel Aviv, who illegally seized my work equipment for my truck.
The Haifa National Insurance Institute branch, who abused me for a year until I was granted disability
That I pay NIS 2300 per month in Health Insurance taxes and even more for my medicine
I have no money for medicine or rent. I can’t make the money after I have paid my millions in taxes I did the army, and until age 46 I did reserve duty
I refuse to be homeless, this is why I am protesting
Against all the injustices done to me by the State, me and others like me..."

Waking to a New Reality in Israel (and perhaps for Palestine?)

During the last year I have spent in Turkey and Israel, I have happily watched from the side as the Arab countries one by one started to break away from their oppressive regimes. Where I was not able to join these demonstrations, during my year away from the classroom I was proud to take part in numerous demonstrations both in Israel and Turkey. While I am citizen of Israel and not one of Turkey, I felt as if my participation was just as crucial in Istanbul as it was in Tel Aviv.

This year it was clear that in Israel something was brewing; a marked increase in public dissent and the demonstrations by the left parties started to pick up momentum after years of falling in disarray. Yet, these demonstrations were a far cry from the massive ones Israel once knew where many demonstrations could easily attract 100,000 demonstrators; not to mention, the biggest demonstration in Israeli history, when 500,000 people came out in 1982 to protest against Israel’s active participation in the Sabra and Shatilla massacres (then about 1 out of 8/9 citizens). Then there was the massive demonstration where Prime Minister Rabin made his last speech only to be assassinated by a Jewish radical, which was followed by the solemn and massive demonstration to mark his murder. Following the second intifada, and the collapse of the Israeli left, the Second Lebanon War only managed to bring a few thousands brave souls out to the streets, followed by the embarrassing low turnout to protest Israel’s war on Gaza, in December 2008. If it had not been for Hadash, the Jewish-Arab left party, it seemed that the protest spirit would have almost completely dissipated. It was after the Gaza War that I decided to begin to write a blog out of pure frustration. Israel had changed radically since I had left for my PhD studies in 1995 and I needed a venue to express these views.

This leads us now to the recent protests in Israel which perhaps should be traced back to a facebook protest against the sudden increase of cottage cheese prices (yes!), which was well covered in the press a little over a month ago. This was followed by one woman who set up a tent on Rothschild Avenue (which is a sort of pedestrian park) to protest her being evicted after she could not afford to pay her rent. This one event set off a trend that has continued to grow ever since with people coming out one by one, setting up tents and calling for the government to deal with the rising property costs. With property prices so high, and rent skyrocketing, the reality young and middle age people go through in Israel to secure living arrangements is beyond belief. For many Israelis, living abroad even seems like a better and easier option compared to the reality of having three jobs just to rent a shabby apartment with landlords that just continue to raise prices year after year. Of course, while this protest first struck a chord with the middle class, it certainly has started to capture the imagination of so many poor people across Israel who live in a society where the gap between rich and poor is one of the highest in the world when put on the scale of western countries.

From the tent city on Rothschild which began almost three weeks ago, the momentum has grown and last Saturday night, after two consecutive demonstrations, the organizers of the tent city, together with a coalition of other groups making demands to the government, managed to bring out to the streets well over 300,000 protestors, with signs comparing the happenings in Israel to the Arab Spring such as “Egypt is here!” From doctors on strike to pensioners, from young professionals to the poor from the “neighborhoods,” from Bedouins living in unrecognized villages to academics who suffer on a daily basis due to the government’s neglect of higher education, the Israeli society has taken the initiative to at last take control of their destiny. Remarkably, when so many analysts were asking how the Arab Spring would influence the region, few could have imagined that Israel would be the one duplicating the Tahrir Square protests; like Egypt its citizenry too is tired of old rhetoric and corruption. The Israeli political establishment is being challenged and the people are voicing an overwhelming “no” to the dangerous American type of capitalism, which has been wholeheartedly adopted by prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and previous governments. The current Israeli government is seeing that if they do not do something quickly the rug will could be pulled out from under their feet, with new elections on the horizon. Perhaps now, Netanyahu will see the true damage such divisive members of his parliament have caused; instead of focusing on the real issues, Netanyahu has been led astray by the anti-democratic Avigdor Lieberman who has set Israel on a dangerous track.

Now the major challenge of the growing campaign is to reach its goal of bringing a millions Israelis to the street on September 3. Until then they have to clarify their goals, unite the people, and make it clear that while questions of justice for Palestinians have remained on the back burner until now, true social justice for Israelis must include the recognition that the occupation needs to come to a screeching halt, and that a democratic Israel cannot exist as long as it continues to occupy Palestinian land and deny the Palestinian people their right to a nation. If the protestors in Israel reach this consensus, then the popular upheaval we are currently witnessing will force the Israeli politicians to work for a social state which keeps the welfare of its citizens at the top of the agenda, and to work with the Palestinians to usher in a new reality for all peoples of the Middle East.

The region’s only real democracy? - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

The region’s only real democracy? - Haaretz Daily Newspaper Israel News

Here is a link to my article which was published in Haaretz, on August 5, 2011. Comments are welcomed...

The Syrian Uprising: A Day of Blood and Rage

April 23, 2011

Less than a month ago, I submitted a blog entry entitled, “Now it is Syria’s Turn: The uprising on its Way?” Clearly, we can say now that yes it is here and the Assad regime has showed no signs of mercy. Since the pro-democracy protests first broke out over a month ago, over 300 people have been killed. Yesterday alone over 100 protestors were killed, and if the images emerging from Syria are authentic then the victims are also children. According to Amnesty, a 7 and 10 year child were shot dead along with a 70 year old man in the city of Izzra. In fact,with most foreign media banned from Syria and with severe restrictions on al-Jazeera and other Arab networks, which are confined to quite neighborhoods in Damascus, much of what we know reaches us from social network sites such as facebook, twitter, and youtube. Yes, April 22 2011 will be a day which will go down in history as the day Syria followed the path of Tunis and Egypt (as, I write this reports are coming in that at least eight people have been killed today during the funeral processions of those killed yesterday).

Breaking out in the coastal regions, southern cities, the major cities of Homs and Hama, it seems that it is only time until the thousands of demonstrating in the suburbs of Damascus will be able to break the gates and enter the capital. With the huge Syrian bureaucracy and security forces well penetrated deep within the society, the revolution has its work cut out. In other words, Assad’s regime will not go down easily and the Syrian opposition has not clearly emerged. The Syrian government’s claim that the opposition is just a group of radical Muslims cannot be bought, and it seems that protestors include articulate groups from among Syria’s different sects: secular and religious Sunni Muslim, the Greek Orthodox and other Christians, the Druze, and it will only take a matter of time before members of the Alawi community will join in. For the Kurds in the Northeastern parts of the country, who seemed to have been appeased following Bashar Assad granting 300,000 Kurds with citizenship, they most likely will continue to work to progress their rights within the country and will throw their support to the Syrian opposition once a clear leadership emerges.

Regionally, it seems that Turkey has failed the test with them remaining silent to the Syrian people’s will and surprisingly still supporting Bashar Assad. However, with violence in Syria hitting new heights, Turkey might need to reconsider the “no-visa entry” recently granted to Syrians to prevent a influx of refugees, and political asylum seekers. Currently, I am trying to receive statistics of how many Syrians have crossed into Turkey during the last month to check if there has been an influx of entries. Nevertheless, with years of instability in Turkey’s Southeastern provinces, Turkey must now begin to worry that perhaps the lifting of visas with Syria was premature and might even lead to an influx of Kurdish activists that do not see eye-to-eye with Turkish policy makers.

Lastly, while many people supported the western invasion of Libya, on the night of the invasion I voiced my skepticism (see link) and questioned the intentions of the US and European forces. What now remains clear is that if the revolutions are to take hold and overthrow their despotic rulers, they will need to remain in the realm of a “popular” uprising as we are seeing in Syria and Yemen; in this sense, Egpyt provided all of the Arab countries how a non-violent civil protest can lead to regime change. Sadly, people will be killed as we have seen; however, the Libyan case has shown us that outside intervention actually can add to the pain and suffering of a local population and even prevent the success of a revolution. At this moment we need to ask ourselves if it had not been for the invasion of the forces would the Libyan Qaddafi still be in power?

For now, we will need to wait and see how successful the Syrians will be at overthrowing Assad. I also do not want to speculate now if these regimes will be “better” or “worse” for the entire region at whole since nothing can justify a country that has kept its people “under lockdown" for over four decades.

Now it is Syria’s Turn: The uprising on its Way?

While many analysts thought Syria’s Bashar Assad’s regime would remain safe and sound amidst the wave of Arabs turning their countries on their head, it seems that they were wrong. During the last two weeks, protesters in the cities of Daraa and Latakia have taken to the streets, and Syria has once again showed to what extent it will go to silence opposition, opening fire and killing at least 100 protesters. The brutal regime of Hafaz Assad, inherited by his son Bashar (who never really seemed that it was his dream to inherit such a role) at last is coming to an end. Yes, it is not important anymore whether or not the recent clashes in Daraa and Latakia will translate to mass demonstrations in the capital of Damascus, clearly Assad will now have no other choice than to lead Syria on a path of democracy. If he does not do this, you can rest assured that the Syrians will do this for him. Yes, for Assad these demonstrations mark the beginning of the end.

The Syrians have lived under draconian emergency laws since 1963, and under Hafiz and Bashar Assad’s iron fist since 1971. Even if Bashar when coming to power in 2000 introduced reforms, they still cannot cover up the farce of a son inheriting the position of his father; and, they cannot cover up the fact that the whole regime is rotten at its very core. The father Assad unarguably was one of the most brutal of the Arab regimes, who will be most remembered for the 1982 massacre he orchestrated in Hama. With the Muslim Brotherhood gaining strength, the city of Hama was bombarded leaving over ten thousand people dead, with some placing the number up to thirty thousand. The massacre always stood as one of the greatest double-standards of the Middle East. While the world voiced a loud protest (rightly so) to Israel and their Lebanese counterparts for the massacre of thousands in Sabra and Shatilla refugees camps, most chose to ignore Assad’s crime. In fact, it was almost as if much of the Arab world suffered from a strong case of amnesia when it came to criticizing crimes against humanities perpetrated by leaders like Hafiz al-Assad (last blog I mentioned the massacre at Halabja committed by Saddam Hussein).


Of all the Middle East countries, perhaps Syria was one country that following the French occupation and Mandate was well on its way to democracy until the Baath party halted this. With a multi-religious makeup, including Sunni, Greek Orthodox, Druze and Alawi, among others, ideological political parties of the 1950’s offered the Syrian people a political system that potentially could cross religious and ethnic lines (there is also a large Kurdish population in Syria). This long break with the past, and years of living under fear, might actually serve as a golden opportunity, a key to unity, which will unite all Syrians. However, this will not be easy with disproportionate amount of peoples living off the huge bureaucracy, and the secret service (muhabarat) embedded in almost every nook and cranny. In Latakia, Assad’s hometown, tensions have been reported between the minority Alawi community and Sunnis; an important note: the Assad family is Alawi and not Sunni. Yes, even if this is not the main motive of all Sunnis, many seem set on taking the “power back” from the Alawi minority.

A Syria free of Assad, a free Syria, free from an outdated ideology, could offer the Middle East a genuine democracy. Just the thought of thousands of Syrians demonstrating a few weeks back seemed unimaginable. For now, we will need to wait and see how this plays out; will this produce an opposition that challenges the regime and forces them to relinquish power in the next few weeks? For now, this does not seem to be the case. However, Syria’s neighbors will need to watch closely since the status-quo has certainly taken a great blow. For Turkey, who has voiced their cautious support of the Assad regime, a new order could dampen their attempts to create a “new Middle East lead by Turkey.” For Israel, new challenges will await now that a genuine call to take back the Golan Heights through peace agreements might emerge. For Lebanon, an Assad free Syria would change all the powers, pulling the carpet of support out from under the Hezbollah, which could set off numerous crises. For Iran, this most definitely would hurt their regional prestige. This fact was read out clearly by the protesters at Daraa that chanted “No to Iran, No to Hezbollah.” I can vouch that someone who has worked on the Middle East for years, the change is refreshing.

The Libyan Crisis, Remembering Kurdish Halabja, and Bahrain.

Evening, 19 March 2011*

While the decision by the UN to impose a “no-fly zone” seems to have been necessary to protect the pro-democratic forces, the recent western assault on Libya needs to be treated with the utmost caution. With the support of the Arab countries and the backing of the UN, French, British, Italian and American forces have started the first step to stop Qaddafi’s war against the protesters for democracy. However, we need to be on guard making sure that that this does not open the doors to a full-out invasion and occupation. Furthermore, we need to ask the question if the West and the UN supports such an act in Libya, why do not they act with equal fervor in the uprising in Yemen, or what about Bahrain?

While I generally support the world’s attempt at saving the innocent in the name of democracy I remain suspicious and ask myself why now. Why now has the world suddenly united against a dictator; especially one like Qaddafi who so many world leaders “hang out” with, such as Italian PM Berlusconi.Simply put, for years as a dictator and a out-right tyrant he was perfectly fine; it is not that we woke up one day and learned that he had been committing crimes against his people. This was always known. So why the newfound support for democracy? Could it be perhaps due to the huge oil reserves in Libya? I think that goes without saying, and even if it is not the main goal now, all realize that it must top the agenda of most countries, including many of the Arab countries not active in the actual assault.

Even if the dynamics and the background are quite different, the current world attempt to stop Qaddafi in his tracks reminds me of the world coalition to punish Saddam Hussein for his invasion of Kuwait in the early nineties. Just like Qaddafi, Hussein too had in his control vast amounts of oil, was fairly easily manipulated by western leaders, and allowed no freedom of speech whatsoever in his country; however, the lack of democracy never phased the US or any of the European countries. In fact, just a few days back it was the anniversary of the genocide committed by Iraqi forces in the Kurdish city of Halabja. On March 16, 1988 Saddam Hussein was responsible for dropping chemicals upon Halabja, killing over 5000 residents. This attack was just one of many which occurred in Hussein’s Anfal campaign aimed at crushing a Kurdish uprising. Who can forget the photos of a whole population dead on the ground after breathing the poison, with one woman falling dead while holding her child. For most of the world then (including the Arab world who remained silent), as long as Saddam produced enough oil the world remained quiet (among other reasons); however, following the Kuwait invasion and fears that Saudi Arabia could fall, Iraq had to be stopped. It was only then we saw the crimes of Saddam Hussein appear on televisions throughout the world. Well, the outcome of the first Iraqi War we know. A little more than a decade later, the 2003 Iraqi war began bringing years of instability and death to an insurmountable amount of innocent civilians.

Which brings us to an even more ironic point: Last week, the Bahraini government, aimed at crushing the pro-Democratic voices, opened its gates and allowed thousands of Saudi Arabian troops to come to their rescue. Did I hear right? Where in the Mediterranean, Western troops are in the middle of an attack on Libya, in the name of pro-democratic voices, in the Gulf, the world remains quiet while another country provides the needs to silence pro-democratic voices. I suppose that with a serious threat to the current “status-quo” in the Gulf, the pro-democratic voices of Bahrain apparently do not deserve the same as the pro-democratic voices in Libya. And, really, believe me, whether I support one campaign or the other, it is important to highlight the ironies.

What remains clear is that we do not know where the recent assault on Libya will take us. We do not know how many more civilian lives might be killed because of this new policy. A new partition of a Middle Eastern country, perhaps; a ground invasion by Western troops which once occupied Libya, perhaps. We need to be cautious and realize that this conflict might just be a bit more than the Western states bargained for, and that we certainly have no way of knowing if this is what the majority of Libyans wanted or not. For now, one thing which is quite clear is that while the short term strategy of the Western forces might seem well-planned, a long term strategy seems to be lacking. Thus, for now only time will tell....

*I began writing this piece right after the news of the of the Western assault on Libya began.