The Israeli Circus and the Upcoming Elections (Israeli 2013 Election Coverage, 5)

In the run up to elections, the Israeli political scene has proven to be as exciting as a Grand Circus. During the last month, we witnessed a great number of breathtaking political moves, such as Ehud Barak’s decision to “leave politics,” Tzipi Livni’s founding of a one-election party, the offended Amir Peretz, leaving the Labor party, only to join Livni, and the indictment and resignation of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who is poised to return in the near future.

Clearly, the ringmaster of this circus is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has proven once again that he is a superb politician, with all parties courting him even before the elections. In one ring, he has Shelly Yahimovich, Yair Lapid, and Tzipi Livni providing the opening act as the Center Acrobats: Shelly jumping up and down on a trampoline, Tzipi impressing all of us with her ability to do multiple somersaults, and Yair mesmerizing us with his steady tightrope performance. Oh, yes, we forgot Shaul Mofaz; due to his poor performance in auditions, he is the ticket collector, who doubles as the usher.

On the other side of the circus is the extreme right Jewish Home party, set to double their parliament seats in the elections, standing strong in the Lion’s Den. In coalition negotiations, Netanyahu may choose to open the cage and threaten the center parties to accept the consequences of a narrow right coalition being formed if they don’t compromise. Clearly, Netanyahu as the ringmaster does not really need the Center Acrobats; in addition to the Lion, he can rely on the boring elephants that for years just walk in circles, wanting only to be fed and kept warm by the state. Of course, I am referring to the Sephardic Shas party, and the United Torah Judaism Haredi party.

I forgot to mention that even if this circus invites all to participate as spectators, regardless of race, religions, or sexual preference, in order to take part in the circus itself, you must adhere to basic Zionist ideology. However, don’t worry. For anti-Zionists there is an alternative circus tent! It is often referred to as the “Arab Tent” and includes parties, such as Hadash (affiliated with Israeli Communist party), and Balad (a party calling for a liberal democracy based on citizenship), both which also find support among Israeli Jews. The Grand Circus does not interfere in the Arab Tent’s show on a regular basis; however, last week, its election committee disqualified MP Haneen Zoabi from participating in her own tent! This decision will most likely be overturned by the Israeli Supreme Court, who is in desperate need of the Arab Tent in order to justify Israel as a country where tents have equal rights.

It is within this Grand Circus that Israeli politics have played out for years, and it is a marvel how spectators year after year come and join the show.  There was a time last year, during the summer, when the circus sales dropped radically, with thousands of Israelis setting up opposing tents along Rothschild, demanding that a new circus be established. However, with little effort, the Ringmaster Netanyahu succeeded in convincing most to return, and now is set to run the show for another five years.   

Israel, Now or Never: 10 Points concerning the Jewish State's future (Israeli 2013 Election Coverage, 4)

Following the UN vote recognizing Palestine as a non-member state, Israel decided to show their appreciation by declaring the building of 3000 housing units in the West Bank. If that was not enough, a day later, it was announced that Israel would hold funds earmarked for the Palestinians. Yes, it seems that the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his FM, Avigdor Lieberman are holding true to their statements that they would work to topple Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, if he preceded to the UN vote.

Despite bringing Israel to one of its lowest places ever in terms of world support, Netanyahu and Lieberman's newly joint election list, Likud Beitenu, appear as if they are set for victory. Most polls place them at receiving between 35-40 seats (out of 120), with the center and center-left parties completely divided. There is no doubt that such an outcome will be detrimental to the future of Israel.

Below are 10 points, made up of comments and questions concerning Israel's future. As a historian, I do not usually look into the future; however, these issues have been on my mind for some time, and I thought I would share them. Further, as a citizen of the Israeli state, and a father of a daughter living there, I obviously have an agenda and a stake in its future. The period of silence is over.   

1. Without a doubt, a Israel refusing to move forward on the peace process and to negotiate with the new Palestinian state, could be met with diplomatic and economic sanctions. While it is highly unlikely that this will happen just "one spring morning," it is an obvious extension of the world's message to Israel: move forward with peace, or else.  

2. Along the same line, the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement has the chance to grow significantly. Public activism against Israel has received a new surge of energy, and it seems like they will seize the moment.  Now that the world has recognized a Palestinian state, the work of the BDS will be all the easier. In short, Israel will become more and more isolated.

3. The American Jewish community needs to come to terms with the fact that they cannot support a Jewish state at all costs. In fact, if Israel does “act in the name of the Jewish people,” then it’s high time that American Jews understand that now is the time to get involved and pressure Israel to recognize the international mandate for a Palestinian state.  A global pact of Jewish groups from such countries as Argentina, Great Britain, and France, among the many others, might also be of special significance. The fact J-Street came out in support of Israel at the beginning of the Gaza campaign, shows that the liberal Jewish community needs to take a much clearer stance; in fact, following the recognition of the Palestinian state, some Jewish communities in the US came out in support of Palestine and are voicing their opposition to the new settlement plans. 

4. The Israeli peace camp needs to reorganize independently of the center parties, who have only shown us that they are incompetent of leading a true movement. In fact, during this election campaign we have seen how incompetent the Israeli center politicians are, beginning with Shelly Yachimovich, Amir Peretz, Shaul Mofaz, Tzipi Livni, Yair Lapid (and the list goes on). The only real leader in Israel today is Benjamin Netanyahu; sad to say, but true. 

5. The only alternative the peace camp has is Meretz, the Zionist Left party, and Hadash, the (Jewish-Arab) Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, which is affiliated with the Israel Communist Party. While it is unlikely that these parties will actually ever have the chance to run the country, it would be interesting to see how the Israeli society might flourish under political parties which actually could offer the Israeli citizen a safe and secure home, for both Jews and Palestinian-Israelis (the Palestinians within Israel proper, who have Israeli citizenship and makeup 20% of the population). 

6. Regardless if the Jewish population do not see fit to vote for the non/anti-Zionist parties, like Hadash, or Balad (a Palestinian party supporting a more radical agenda of equality for all citizens, which leans towards a One-State solution), they should at least open their eyes to the fact that there is a 20% Palestinian minority in their state. Building true bridges with Palestinians within Israel could be an important step to reaching peace and equality for all in the region. Also, it could also show the Israeli Jews a third way, one where Zionism can be retained culturally, but does not need to equal political hegemony. 

7. There is a real danger that a Netanyahu-Lieberman team, following the elections, in a moment of desperation, could set out to unilaterally annex parts of the West Bank, using the Separation Wall as a border; in essence, ending hopes that Jerusalem will be a shared capital of Israel and Palestine. All eyes need remain open to such a scenario. We know from Lebanon and Gaza, unilateral pullouts lead to continued violence. Peace can only be achieved through negotiations.

8. The Palestinians also need to seize the moment, unite all of their factions, and call new elections. No matter what type of government is elected, they will need to continue down the path Mahmoud Abbas has paved: one of diplomacy. This is the only way they will succeed in reaching full statehood. As an Israeli citizen, I will stop here since saying more would be presumptuous on my behalf.  They have plenty of peace-loving people on their side. The point is too build bridges together. 

9. In light of President Obama’s support of Israel, in the near future, he will need to come up with a major-policy shift, addressing Palestinian needs.  Obama won the Nobel Peace prize even before he made any real attempts at peace; now is the time to show us that this was not in vain. 

10. Israel, with its walls, fences, and Iron Dome to protect it skies, has become the largest gated community in the world. This is certainly not the Jewish haven Zionists had in mind. If Israel invested in peace, what it has invested in arms, then it is safe to say they would be living in a  a country where their children, along with the whole region, would thrive. After 45 years of occupation, and a century of violence, Israeli politicians have lead their citizens down a dead-end road. The time has come for the citizens to ask themselves how their own nationalism could be what has kept Israel in such a vicious circle of violence for so many years. 

This Time for Palestine: A Melancholy Victory and a Strong Message to Israel

The UN Vote; Photo from Al-Quds Newspaper website.

Less than an hour ago, Palestine, was recognized by the UN General Assembly as a state. Even if the Palestinians still have a far way to reach statehood, tonight confirmed the urgency in establishing a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza strip. The President of Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas, must be congratulated for his strategy of taking practical steps, which has led his people to this day.

The Israeli government has worked hard during the last few days to downplay the significance of tonight’s vote. However, their recent actions just show us how out of touch with reality they have become. Now that the vote is over, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, cannot escape the fact that the vote for Palestine was a major defeat for a government that did everything possible to grab more land, while stalling the peace process. However, more importantly, the vote for Palestine marks something much more significant, showing the Israelis that the dream of a Greater Israel, was only that –a dream.

Palestinians Celebrating Photo from Al-Quds Newspaper Website

Yes, tonight marks the start of the decolonization of Palestine; not of historical Palestine, but of the West Bank and Gaza strip. Tonight, Israelis need to ask their politicians why for the last 45 years, they have clung onto the idea that Israel could legitimately rule over a mass population, stripped of civil and political rights. Or, ask themselves, why have they opted to ignore the injustices, and turned their backs, perhaps in sheer exhaustion of the conflict.  

I wish I could be optimistic; however, I also fear the future. The work ahead of us will be painful on both sides. Violence can erupt at a moment’s notice, spiraling out of control. Therefore, each side will have to work to do its utmost to work for reconciliation in their own camps, preparing the way for a comprehensive peace agreement. Let us not forget, that it was 65 years ago tonight that Palestine was thrown into a bloody civil war between Arab and Jew, costing each side one percent of their population, and leading to a refugee problem which continues until today.

Lastly, to the skeptics, among them Palestinians (and a minority of  Jews), who support a one-state solution, believing the two peoples should live under one flag, with the principles of a liberal democracy of “one person one vote.” I say the following: let us work towards the two-state solution, and if peace prevails, together we can think of creative solutions, such as two-states no borders, a confederacy, or, yes, a one state solution. In the end, it will be the people on both sides who decide. 

For now, I will take this opportunity, to congratulate Palestine, and the Palestinians. As I watched the UN Vote from my home in Istanbul, I took the time to remember all the demonstrations for Palestine we took part it in, Israelis and Palestinians together, remembering the tears we shed, both from happiness and sadness. Now, a once distant thought of a free Palestine, alongside Israel, seems closer than ever. 

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Who can declare Victory, Hamas? Israel?, Plus a Look at Gaza

Following the Israeli Gaza bombardment, the second in the last four years, Hamas was quick to declare victory. The two sides had reached a ceasefire, which most likely was similar to the one that they were about to sign just a week before the Israeli operation began. During the week long campaign, in the name of self-defense, the Israelis used excessive force (an understatement), bombing Gaza’s infrastructure, and killing over 160 people. While Israelis claim this was done to stop the firing of rockets on their civilian population, which under no circumstances can be condoned, it is safe to say that the escalation could have been avoided, and was sparked by Israel, following the assassination of Hamas leader, Ahmad al-Jabari. 

Israel signed the ceasefire seemingly to avoid a ground invasion. Prime Minister Netanyahu knew too well that a botched operation could spoil his plans to be re-elected in January. And, if it was not due to election speculation, the fact is that Israel was not able to stop the rockets from showering Israel, even after wreaking mass havoc. So, in that sense, Israel did not win. But, did they lose? Certainly, not; in this game that has gone on far too long, there are no "winners," and the losers are the masses of people who are caught up in the fire of their politicians, who recklessly "fight in their name." 
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On Gaza Affair and Regional issues, plus Hard Questions for Israel, click here

Relation between the Gaza Affair and Israeli Elections, click here
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Therefore, an Israeli non-victory also does not equal a Hamas victory; something Hamas claimed, following the signing of the ceasefire.  Yes, they succeeded to hit Tel Aviv with their rockets; the last time this happened was in 1991, when during the first Gulf War Iraq fired scud missiles, much larger than the Hamas rockets. Hamas also succeeded in holding their own; but to claim that this was a victory is absurd. Especially, at what cost! During the midst of fighting, I simply did not buy Hamas’ persistence to shoot rockets into Israel as a noble resistance, and I placed it on the same level as the Israelis’ sick obsession of bombing the hell out of Gaza. The Hamas’ policy of continued resistance (shooting rockets) can only be interpreted as one of "we will go down with the ship no matter what, taking all of our passengers with us." And, for all those claiming victory, they should open their eyes and see that for Hamas, this was a major blow, but for Gaza it was much bigger.

Not Hamas, Not Israel, let the Palestinian People be the Victors  

I should hope that after all this pain and suffering that the real victors will be the Palestinian people. In four days, on November 29, 65 years after the UN declared that Palestine would be divided into a Jewish and Arab state, it is likely that Palestine is going to be recognized by the UN General Assembly as a non-member state. As it stands now, the Palestinians have a chance to win the needed 2/3 of the vote, with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas set on moving forward, despite Israel’s threats to topple him if he succeeds.  Now, the time has come for the world to stand up and recognize Palestine. Yes, most likely, the United States and Europe will object or sustain; yet, if they do so, this will be a stain on these countries, especially after the Gaza operation. For US President, Barack Obama, this is gus chance to prove to the world that he is serious about reaching a comprehensive peace settlement (see former blog related to this)    

For Gaza, they urgently need the status of statehood.  Once this is achieved it will be a golden opportunity for the world to take steps to end the blockade, and second, to take responsibility to solve the real crisis in Gaza: mass poverty, unemployment, coupled with one of the highest birthrates on the planet (see below). The time has come for Gaza, regardless which government rules there, or what actions are taken, that the world take notice of the suffering that has gone on there for decades. 

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I have provided some staggering statistics below, which show the sheer desperation Gazans face on a daily basis:

Population: 1,710,257 (Gaza City is one of the most densely populated places in the whole world!)

43.8% 0-14 years of age (male 384,494/ female 363,818)

54.7% 15-63 (male 469,528/ female 448,182)

65 years and over: 2.6% (male 17,939/ female 26,296) (2012 est.)

Median Age male-17.9 years old (some statistics places this even at 14)

Infant mortality about 17/1000 births

Unemployment rate: 40% (184^th country out of 201)

Poverty Rate 38%

Literacy rate: 92.4%

Facts from Institute for Middle East Understanding, based on a UN Report

• Gazan households spend 56 percent of their expenditures on food, with 52.5 percent eating lower quality food and 67 percent buying food on credit as a result of high food costs.
• 54 percent of households face food insecurity, defined as inadequate physical, social or economic access to food. An additional 12 percent are considered vulnerable to food insecurity. Only 20 percent of Gazan households are food secure.
• 38 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.
• Since the blockade began, the number of Palestinian refugees completely unable to secure access to food and lacking the means to purchase even the most basic items, such as soap, school stationery and safe drinking water (‘abject poverty’) has tripled to 300,000.
• 75 percent of households polled by the World Food Programme in the Gaza Strip received outside aid.
• Gaza’s hospitals are at “zero stock levels” for 178 of 480 essential medications, with another 69 at low stock. Of 700 essential medical supplies, 190 are at “zero stock levels” and another 70 at low stock.
• Due to lack of fuel, the Gaza Power Plant runs at 45 percent capacity, leading to daily blackouts of eight to twelve hours. Given this fuel shortage, 90 percent of private cars are no longer driven and of public services, only 15 percent are operational. (Palestinian Centre for Human Rights, The Illegal Closure of the Gaza Strip: Collective Punishment of the Civilian Population, December 10, 2010)
• The Gaza aquifer provides 90 percent of Gaza’s water. Only ten percent of that water meets the standards of being suitable for consumption. Water-borne diseases cause 26 percent of illnesses in Gaza.
• Because of lack of treatment capacity and electricity, Gaza authorities must release around 80,000 cubic meters of sewage into the Mediterranean Sea on a daily basis.
• The construction of 86,000 houses is required to meet natural growth and recover from previous Israeli invasions.

• Economic output per capita has fallen by 40 percent of 1994 levels.
• 95 percent of Gaza’s 3,900 industrial businesses are closed or have suspended work. The other five percent are operating at 20 to 50 percent of capacity. This has cost between 100,000 and 120,000 jobs.
• Israeli restrictions block access to 35 percent of Gaza’s agricultural land and fishermen are forbidden to fish beyond 3 nautical miles from the shore. In 2010,employment in agriculture fell from 14,900 to 10,100.
• While Gaza needs 670,000 truckloads of construction material, an average of 715 enter per month, at 11% of pre-blockade levels. The construction industry now has 10,000 workers, 42 percent of pre-blockade levels.
• Unemployment is at 45.2 percent, with only 40.3 percent of working-age Gazans in the labor force. Youth unemployment is at more than 47 percent.
• 290 truckloads of exports were allowed out of Gaza between November 2010 and May 2011. Before the siege, more than 960 truckloads a month exited Gaza. This is onlyfive percent of pre-blockade levels.
• In 2011, a weekly average of 900 truckloads of goods entered Gaza. Before the siege, 2,807 truckloads entered weekly.
• On March 2, 2011, Israel closed the Karni crossing, forcing importers and exporters to use the Kerem Shalom crossing. For wheat exporters, this increased transport costs by 235 percent and for wheat importers by 30 percent.
• Between June 2010 and March 2011, the cost of wheat flour increased by 50 percent and vegetable oil increased by 40 percent. Meanwhile, the average wage has decreased by more than 25 percent since 2007.

The Gaza Crisis: Some thoughts on Region and Questions to Israel

The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, seems to have read the region well before he started the recent military campaign in Gaza. With the Middle East in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Syria in the midst of a civil war, and Turkish-Israeli relations at the lowest point ever, Israel will be able to continue with their military operation with little interference.

Since the overthrowing of Hosni Mubarak, Israeli-Egyptian relations have been put to a test.  The new president, Mohammad Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood which is aligned with Hamas, has had to walk a tight rope between pleasing his constituency and keeping the US satisfied. Clearly, for Israel, this marked a change; Mubarak, had been a strong ally of the Jewish state: Egypt, together with Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and Saudi Arabia, had unofficial alliance against Hamas, and served as a force countering Hezbollah.

Immediately before the Israeli escalation, which was set off by the assassination of the Hamas military leader, Ahmad al-Jabari, Egypt had been in the midst of writing up a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel. The fact that Israel chose to disrespect the Egyptian efforts (something they did to Turkish PM Erdogan right before Operation Cast-Lead), must have outraged Morsi to no end; once the Israeli massive bombardment of the Strip began, the Egyptian ambassador to Israel was recalled. Nevertheless, just two days later it seems that all eyes are on Egpyt to broker a deal. Just this morning the Egyptian PM, Hesham Kandil, paid a visit to Gaza. On Sunday, Erdogan will be arriving for an already planned visit aimed at boosting economic ties between Egypt and Turkey, and the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon will arrive to Cairo on Tuesday.  In other words, Egypt is still in the picture and it seems that Morsi will continue to straddle the tight rope, at least in the near future. However, if the Israeli Operation turns into a long term operation, similar to Operation Cast Lead, which took place almost four years ago, Israel could be entering dangerous waters, perhaps crossing a line in which they will not be able to salvage their relations with Egypt. Of course, Israel knows this, and it seems like they will work to cut this operation short.

On Israel’s northern front, Hezbollah opted not to act during the last major Israeli operation in Gaza (it did so in the summer 2007), so it is unlikely that they will now. Especially, since there main supporter in the region, Syria, is caught up in a civil war. The fact that the Assad regime has managed to kill over 30,000 of his citizens, has taken a great deal of support away from the Palestinian cause, also making the Israelis work a bit easier. Put bluntly, who in Syria will look towards defending the Palestinian cause when they are struggling and dying on a daily basis, with almost 500,000 Syrian refugees dispersed in the surrounding countries.  As for the Hezbollah, they too know that any misguided act could throw Lebanon into chaos, something which would not serve them well for now. It seems that the Israeli government also took these issues into consideration.

Perhaps, most important of all is Turkey. During the last decade, Israeli-Turkish relations have deteriorated. While most attribute this solely to PM Erodgan, we need to keep in mind that the Turkish people have always been overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian. In fact, warm relations with Israel have always been contingent on Israel’s progress at securing a peace deal with the Palestinians. Some might be surprised that Erdogan, during the first years of his tenure, breathed new life in the relations with Israel, after his predecessor, the late (secular) Bulent Ecevit, accused Israelis of committing genocide in the Jenin Refugee camp in 2002. Now that Erdogan has taken the reins of the Turkish state away from the Turkish army command, Israel is left with no internal support. Ironically, due to Turkey’s placing Israeli-Turkish ties on hold following the Gaza Flotilla incident, there is little Turkey can do for the Palestinians. Last year, in an article published in Haaretz (translated to Turkish in Radikal), I argued that if Erdogan really wanted to help the Palestinians, he would have to strengthen his ties with Israel. The current Gaza affair has shown how true this is. With no ambassador, and minimal diplomatic ties, what can Erdogan do?

For now, it seems Erdogan will use the strengthening of relations with Egypt as a way to pressure Israel, perhaps even establishing a strategic military alliance. While some analysts are speculating that in the post Arab Spring period, Turkey and Egypt will compete for regional hegemony, we need to remember that recently Turkey loaned Egypt one billion dollars. Egypt needs Turkey, and economically, Turkey needs to branch out into new markets. Further, the loan deal should also be seen as a tide change in regional trends since for decades Egypt has relied solely on US financial support. 

Now to the Iranians; it seems that they must know that the current Israeli operation in Gaza, very well could be preparing the Israeli home front for a war with Iran.  One of the Israeli scenarios was if they went to war with Iran, Hamas would join in, causing havoc on the southern front. However, with a beaten Hamas, Israel will be able to focus on its northern front, in case Iran has Hezbollah join the escapade. Further, an obvious outcome of the current conflict, even if not planned, is with Hamas rockets falling on the Tel Aviv metropolitan are, the Israeli government will be able to assess the overall situation, if in the not too-far-future, Iran's missiles will be falling on Israel's largest population center.   

Perhaps Netanyahu, along with his FM, Avigdor Lieberman, who seems keen on wrecking all of Israeli ties with Arab and Muslim countries, might have taken all of the above scenarios into consideration. However, with all the political gambles being taken, it seems that they still are far from answering the real questions: How much longer will Israel be able to remain an isolated Middle East state, occupying Palestinian territories? Why would they exchange a peace with Egypt,  albeit a cold one, for a hostile one? Why does the current government not do more to improve their relations with Turkey, since it was Israel who led the botched Flotilla campaign. Why have they recently threatened to topple Palestinian moderates, like Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas?

If you get rid of Abbas, who will Israel speak with?

The essential question really then is what are the Israelis waiting for?  If the Israeli electorate does not wake up and pressure their leaders to work towards a comprehensive agreement they might find themselves living in a de facto bi-national state, one that will need to rely on an apartheid system to continue its existence. Time is running out, and an operation in Gaza will do little to solve Israel's real existential questions. 

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The Escalation in Gaza: its Twitterization and how Operation Hits at the Heart of Israeli Democracy (Israeli 2013 Election Coverage, 3)

Late yesterday afternoon (in Istanbul), while doing my evening shop in a supermarket a beep came from i-phone. It was an update from Yedioth Ahronot, informing me that Israel had set off on Operation Pillar of Defense against the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. I sighed, grabbed enough food to make dinner, and within minutes had returned home to see the developments. 

Twitterization of the Conflict

Well, my fears were immediately confirmed. First, turning on the BBC, news was coming in of a massive Israeli onslaught, which began with the targeted assassination of Hamas military leader, Ahmad al-Jabari.  However, as a relatively new twitter user, I knew this would provide me with good sources to see how this struggle was playing out.  In English, Hebrew, Arabic, and Turkish, I scanned the tweets, one by one.  One tweet was from Gaza announcing bombs going off, another Gazan mentioned that rockets had just been fired at Israel; within minutes, an Israeli tweeted that sirens had just gone off in Beer Sheva. In other words, I was watching the war from my home in Istanbul, succumbed by the feeling that I was there.  Definitely, a post-modern reality. Not surprisingly, I later learned that the Israeli army first announced the beginning of the operation via their twitter account.  

I myself began to tweet in different languages. In Turkish I tweeted one thing, in Hebrew another, and English something different (need to add Arabic fonts!), trying to speak to different communities. It turned out to be a frustrating exercise since I know if I was in Israel I would have been out in the street demonstrating, shouting out in a full voice: no to escalation, no to war! Yes, by tweeting I was actually addressing a group, who I could not see. In a street demonstration, I can capture the eyes of thousands, it is real-time, with real reactions of people, some clapping and others cursing. In fact, almost four years ago, I was in Israel during Operation Cast Lead and we did that: together Jews and Palestinians, we took to the streets.

The Escalation and the Upcoming Israeli Elections

Yes, it has been four years since the last Israeli-Palestinian war in Gaza. Sadly, neither social media, nor people protesting, have succeeded in finding some way to convince both Israelis and Palestinians to give up arms and find a solution. This latest escalation is typical.  It began last week as skirmish on the Gaza-Israel border between Hamas and the Israeli army, leading to Israeli reprisal and Hamas shooting rockets into Israel’s southern cities. Which side was “first” is not important.  By targeting Jabari, Israel knew that this was a declaration of war, and rather than continuing the negotiations for a cease-fire, they escalated.

What is worrying is the timing of the escalation.  With the Israeli elections just a little over two months away, many analysts are accusing Israeli PM Netanyahu as using the onslaught to convince the Israeli people of his ability to manage a major operation, especially since he has made it clear that he believes Israel should target Iran, in the event they are close to obtaining nuclear arms. For his Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, who now leads the small Atsmaut (Independence) Party, after defecting from Labor, a successful operation might actually give his party enough votes to cross the threshold to enter parliament. 

Well, we can speculate all we want, and I am sure that there was not a scenario where Netanyahu and Barak sat down and said to one another, “time to start a war.”; however, how could this not be in the back of their minds. In any case, Netanyahu must be quite confident of the operation's success since dragging in Israel to a major conflict could also lead to him losing elections. With Israel being militarily superior, this scenario seems unlikely.*

I will conclude by saying then, yes, Israel has a right to defend itself, just like the Palestinians have a right to defend themselves. However, what might be at stake here is actually the Israeli democracy itself. The truth be known, the recent escalation could have been diverted, which leads us to the simple but loaded question:

In a democracy, doesn't the launching of such an operation before an election counter the essence of a democratic system? I would say yes, and therefore argue that the timing of this operation is not only an attack on Gaza, but also on democracy and the future essence of the Israeli state.

*Israeli superiority is also related to changes in regional politics, which I will address in an upcoming blog.

  

Palestine Now: Mahmoud Abbas, Barack Obama, and the Upcoming Israeli vote (Israeli 2013 Election Coverage, 2)

Over a year ago, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas attempted to have Palestine recognized as a full member state of the United Nations; unfortunately, the Americans vetoed this, causing many to lose hope in US President Barack Obama. A little over a year later, Abbas is planning to go back to the UN to rally up support in the General Assembly for a vote on recognizing Palestine as a non-member state. While many Palestinians have lost faith in Abbas, with time, he has shown that he is dedicated to see a Palestinian state established in the shortest time possible.

For many Palestinians, Mahmoud Abbas has betrayed them; two weeks ago, he appeared on Israeli channel two, and declared in Arabic and English that he believed in the two-state solution, and has no aspiration to return to live in Safad (Tzefat), his birthplace which is located in the northern Israel.  He declared that for him, Palestine is the West Bank and Gaza strip, with Jerusalem as its capital (shared with Israel).  This contradicts the will of many Palestinians who believe in the right of return to historical Palestine, to the lands that they lived on before the 1948 Nakbah. 

Realistically speaking, I think we all know that for now the Right of Return is not on the agenda; and if so, it would be for a limited number of people negotiated under a settlement. In any case, we are so far from a settlement that under the circumstances, those who oppose Abbas should reassess their stance. More than any other Palestinian politician, Abbas has systematically demonstrated that he is dedicated to peace and a struggle which is achieved through diplomacy. I would argue that he has made serious progress at placing Palestine on the agenda. Now that Obama has won a second term, Abbas can safely brush off Israeli claims that he is at fault for not making progress towards a peace agreement.   

Over the last almost four years, Israeli PM Netanyahu and his very undiplomatic Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, have demonstrated over and over again that they are not interested in peace (for more on Netanyahu/Lieberman and elections, click here).  While the Iranian threat is real, Netanyahu has used it as a way to divert attention from the Israeli occupation and the continued colonization of Palestinian lands. Furthermore, Lieberman has not missed an opportunity to try to delegitimize Abbas and the Palestinian authority. More recently, Israel is threatening the Palestinian authority that if they go to the UN for recognition, Israel will hold back revenues it owes them.    

The real test now begins for Barack Obama to push the Israeli government to either work towards a two-state solution, or accept the consequences: a shared state with Palestinians; in other words, a bi-national state. With the Israeli elections only two months away, a major speech concerning the Middle East is more important than ever, and if Obama does have something in mind, it needs to be stated even before the second inauguration. Let us not forget that concerning foreign policy, Obama has a golden opportunity to make change; not like domestic politics where his hands are tied by the Republican house, with foreign policy he is free to set the agenda on his own.  If he were to do this, the Israeli electorate would have the chance to see that the game of stalling is over and the time has come to take a major step at ending the occupation, or to bear the consequences. By doing this, Obama will place the peace process back on the agenda, breathing debate into the Israeli society concerning its future.  

Netanyahu's Political Gamble: Uniting with Lieberman (Israeli 2013 Election Coverage, 1)

Since PM Netanyahu declared over two weeks ago that he was calling early elections, which will be held on January 22, the Israeli political world started to tremor; last Thursday evening, with Netanyahu and FM Lieberman’s announcement that their parties were uniting under the name, Likud Beitenu, an earthquake has taken place.

During the last 3.5 years, Israel has had one of its most stable governments in history. Despite not having the largest party in the Knesset, Netanyahu’s Likud party, together with Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beitenu party, stood solid.  The two parties formed the largest bloc in the Knesset with 42 seats out of 120, and together with the Sephardic religious party Shas, and other right wing and religious parties, Netanyahu was easily able to muster up a majority. 

Despite his majority, there were a few crises, and high and low moments. However, one trend remains clear: Netanyahu has always shown the need to bring in a strong ally from another party. Netanyahu, a shrewd politician, basically used Barak and Mofaz when needed and discarded them accordingly.  Ehud Barak will be remembered as the leader who defected from the Labor party, in order to continue to serve as Netanyahu’s loyal defense minister; as long as Netanyahu had Barak, he could create the illusion that Israel was interested in reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Later, earlier this summer, in order to buy time, he enticed Shaul Mofaz, the leader of Kadima, the largest party in the Knesset, to join his coalition. This gave Netanyahu an almost historic majority; needless to say, this was a short-lived partnership.   

At times, it seemed as if Netanyahu believed that having a second-strong man in the coalition would neutralize the real force, Avigdor Lieberman. His party, Yisrael Beitunu (Israel’s Our Home), is a far-right party, who in the 2006 elections almost surpassed Likud’s performance. Lieberman in some senses can be seen as the “bad boy” of the Likud, since it was Netanyahu who helped give him his quick boost into Israeli politics, but left the Likud in 1997, objecting to Netanyahu’s concessions to Palestinians.  In 1999, he formed the Yisrael Beitunu, which bases its main source of voters from immigrants from the fomer Soviet Union. His party since has continued to grow, and is a major force in Israeli politics.  

For Netanyau, joining with Lieberman, who might be indicted in the near future due to an ongoing corruption case, is a huge political gamble. It is hard to find a more polarizing politician than Lieberman. Within the Likud, many see Lieberman as far too right wing; among Israel’s left he is seen as a racist, whose politics borderline on fascism; among Israel’s Palestinian citizens (20% of overall Israel population) he as seen as a threat. Put simply, he is a provocateur.  

For the Likud, a democratic party, with proper institutions, the fact that Netanyahu has made the decision to set up a joint list with Lieberman, without the blessing of the party, is not good news at all. If Netanyahu allows Lieberman to become too dominant, Likud has the chance of losing its center-right voters, who support the Likud as a right -wing party, which has remained true to its liberal and pluralistic foundations, represented by such politicians as Dan Meridor and Benny Begin. Further, with the recent announcement of Moshe Kahlon that he will not run for the upcoming elections, the Likud is left without a center-right Mizrahi candidate. One Israeli pundit correctly commented combining Likud’s traditional Mizrahi base together with Lieberman’s Russian base, is like mixing oil and water.

For Lieberman, this is a win-win situation. He is interested in infiltrating the center (along with importing his radical right-wing politics) and leaving his party behind.  Yisrael Beitunu as a party seems limited in scope and seem has reached its peak. What seems clear is that Lieberman is laughing out loud at his adversaries such as Ehud Barak and Shaul Mofaz, who seems to have been finished by Netanyahu’s slick moves; the question remains what Netanyahu has in his secret brief case for Lieberman. If he needs, will he be able to ditch Lieberman if polls in the next few weeks show the new Likud Beiteinu as not being able to dish out the strong numbers they are predicting.

On a personal note, over the years, I have made myself clear many times concerning Lieberman. I would claim that as Israel’s Foreign Minister, he has brought Israel to one of its lowest place ever, and his unruly behavior in the halls of the United Nations does not suit a country of Israel’s stature. He has proven time again that he has no interest whatsoever in the peace process, and even his politics can be seen not only as anti-Arab but generally unsympathetic to Muslims in general. Even the thought that one day he might become   Israel's defense minister, or even the Prime Minister, hopefully will be enough to convince the center-left in Israel that they need to unite and place their personal aspirations aside in order to save the Israeli democracy.  

*For more on the upcoming Israeli elections, and my point of view, please follow me on Twitter @istanbultelaviv, or find me by searching Louis Fishman