Turkey's desperate need to reconcile with Israel (following Istiklal Blast)*

Haaretz: “The ruling AKP party, used to sanctioning extreme anti-Israeli rhetoric and even blatant anti-Semitism, has condemned the anti-Israeli hate tweet of a party activist after the Istanbul bombing. It's is a sign of how actively Turkey is now courting Israel.”

Louis Fishman March 20, 2016

Saturday morning, a suicide bomber blew himself up on Istiklal, Istanbul’s main pedestrian avenue. An Israeli group on a culinary tour of the city took the main force of the explosion, in what appears to be a random act directed at tourists, and not specifically at them as Israelis. Three Israeli citizens were killed and eleven injured, in addition to an Iranian who succumbed to fatal injuries; a Turkish family, including a two year old toddler and her father, were hospitalized in serious condition. 

This is the fourth bomb to go off in Turkey in the last two months which cumulatively have killed over 80 people. Two bombs have hit tourists in Istanbul, with those attacks believed linked to ISIS sympathizers, and the two recent Ankara bombings directed at Turkish citizens were claimed by TAK, a militant Kurdish organization, an offshoot of the outlawed PKK, whose most recent bombing happened just a week ago killing 37 people. Last October, an ISIS sympathizer killed over a hundred people at a leftist pro-peace rally in Ankara as well.  

Saturday's bombing sadly did not come as a surprise: The American and German embassies had issued warnings, with many Turkish citizens themselves avoiding Istiklal for fear of an imminent attack. 

Immediately following the attack on Saturday, Turkey’s social media was saturated with misinformation, including claims that another bomb had been detonated in Istanbul’s upscale neighborhood of Nisantasi. Very soon rumors began to emerge that among the injured was a group of Israelis. At first, this seemed far-fetched, since even before the 2010 Gaza Flotilla incident and the breakdown of Israeli-Turkish relations, Israeli groups and tourists are rarely seen in Istanbul outside of its airport, which serves as a major hub onwards for Israeli travelers. 

Upon hearing that Israelis were among the injured, Irem Aktas, a low-ranking member of AKP who headed one of Istanbul’s AKP women’s branches and a declared Erdogan fan, tweeted that she wished death upon the Israelis injured. The hateful tweet took off like wildfire, retweeted by Turks disgusted by her words, and migrating quickly to the international press; not surprisingly, her sentiments received some praise as well. 

However, unlike past incidents, when extreme anti-Israeli rhetoric, often bleeding into blatant anti-Semitism, has not only been sanctioned but at times even coopted by AKP government officials and their zealous supporters, this time – commendably - party officials came out strongly against Aktas. She now faces disciplinary action and possible dismissal from the party. 

This move by the AKP comes at a time when Turkey and Israel have been putting serious efforts at renewing ties. Last January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who until recently never missed an opportunity to publically disgrace Israel, shocked many when he stated that it is not just Israel that needs Turkey but “we also need Israel.” In fact, during the last few months Turkey has made numerous statements that makes it appears almost as if it is courting Israel. 

Turkey’s reconciliation with Israel has more to do with geopolitics than a new found love for the Jewish state. Since relations between the two countries went sour, Turkey has lost most of its regional clout. This is true in Syria where it has lost a great deal of its influence and, following the downing of the Russian jet last October, a new need for natural gas arose, which Israel is able to answer. Lastly, Turkey’s rapprochement with Saudi Arabia—an unspoken ally of Israel—also came at a cost, while its relations with Egypt are still strained.    

Domestically, as a diversion from clamping down on opposition voices and the seizing of media outlets, cutting a deal with Israel would give it much needed credit with Washington. This is of the utmost importance now also due to Turkey’s renewed war in its own backyard, as it takes on the PKK in the southeastern Kurdish populated regions, which has led to flagrant human rights violations and death of innocent civilians (with hundreds of dead among Turkey's own forces). 

Last night, during a press briefing related to the bombing, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was asked about the talks between Turkey and Israel. He took a very diplomatic stance, stating “We have encountered some delays in this process, not from a lack of trying but due to fundamental issues,” and that the goal was to reach “normalization.” Netanyahu also commented on Aktas’ tweet, calling it “outrageous,” and stating that he received assurances that action would be taken against her.

Even if the major stumbling block standing in the way of Turkish-Israeli reconciliation seems to relate to the Gaza blockade, it could also be a key to the solution. Israel isn't budging on Turkey’s demand to lift the blockade, but it might be leaning towards a partial lifting to satisfy Turkish demands, and in return Israel could plausibly demand guarantees that the Turkish government stop using Israel as its public punching bag and take steps at combatting anti-Semitism within its ranks. In that sense, perhaps Saturday’s bombing could be a turning point in relations.  

An agreement would also allow Turkey, if it really was interested, to invest in the West Bank and Gaza, and to begin to take real steps at making Palestinian lives better in place of the usual empty rhetoric. Nevertheless, the bombing once again highlights the fact that it is actually Turkey that now is in desperate need of renewed relations with Israel, while Israel has time on its side, knowing that in the current situation in Turkey, relations between the two countries only can remain limited in scope, or at least until some stability returns. 

For now, unfortunately, any hope for Israeli tourism to Turkey as a step towards normalization will have to be put on hold as well, not least due to the Israel foreign ministry's travel advisory warning against travel to Turkey. Sadly, the Israeli group who set out Saturday to discover Turkish culture and food became a part of a dangerous sequence of violence in a country over its head in grave issues that leaves no one untouched.  

This article appeared in Haaretz on March 20, 2016, click here for link

Has Hamas miscalculated Turkey's role?- Some Thoughts on Regional Divisions

It has almost been a month since Israel launched its attack on Gaza, with the world standing by as over a thousand Palestinian civilians have been killed; it being clear that by all estimates Hamas militants killed in the fighting easily makeup the minority of victims.

Despite this, Hamas remains defiant from the start to continue with the “noble resistance” of shooting rockets into Israel, and attacking Israeli civilian and military targets via the tunnels. And, despite their large arms cache, and improved tactics, the Islamist group has proved mostly incapable of penetrating Israel’s iron dome and borders.

After such mass violence -- all claim that this round of violence far surpasses previous rounds of fighting -- it is clear that no protest, diplomatic sanctions, and international pressure, will distract the Israeli government from its onslaught. While it seems that both sides were not interested in the mass escalation, the question is why then have we reached this point where no ceasefire has been able to take hold. 

Anyone surprised at the death and destruction however should take a moment and place the current state of affairs in Gaza into the context of the current state of affairs of the Middle East. Following the Arab Spring, or more correctly, the popular uprising staged against the region’s dictators, the Middle East has become even more polarized, exacerbating regional divisions.   

Egypt’s former president Mohammed Morsi, who represented the Muslim Brotherhood, first brought hopes of change, providing support for Hamas. However, his policies set off mass protests at home, which led to a coup d’état.  The downfall of Morsi was not only a major blow to Hamas but also to Turkey’s Erdogan who saw himself as Morsi’s mentor. Without Egypt, Turkey would now represent Hamas’ stance; albeit, with little success. 

Just like Egypt, the Syrian conflict, which has led to the death over 170,000 people, shook the region and ignited the realigning of previous alliances. Just years before the breakout of the Syrian revolution, Erdogan placed his bets on Assad, which signaled a forming alliance against Israel, Mubarak’s Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and not surprisingly against the Palestinian authority. Once again Turkey landed on the side of Hamas.

As the Syrian revolution turned into a civil war, Turkey realigned itself with radical groups against Assad’s forces, while Hamas was left without Syrian-and Iranian-support. In fact, even if Turkey never officially pronounced its support for these groups, there is plenty of evidence that it supplied arms to ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra fighters and allowed them free movement within their border (with the grace of the United States).  

With this Middle East division, Hamas was left with two countries, Turkey and Qatar. In other words, the deadlock in reaching a ceasefire seems to be due to the fact that Hamas placed its hopes on Turkey and Qatar's ability to successfully lobby on its behalf. However, until now this has clearly failed.  

Just as Turkey's strategy failed in Syria, it seems that its strained relations with Israel and Egypt has made it more irrelevant than ever before. Even if Turkey succeeds in brokering a ceasefire, it will not be much more than a photo-op since in the end it seems it will most likely be dictated by Egypt. Regardless of the outcome, the current crisis has shown once again Turkey's inability to progress regional stability. 

No doubt that in the meantime Palestinians are in dire need of a ceasefire to stop the killing-something that Syrians, Iraqis (and Libyans) most likely will not get the chance to encounter in the near future.  However, rest assured that even if the polarized Middle East has caused a great deal of death and destruction, there could be much more in sight. 

Who can declare Victory, Hamas? Israel?, Plus a Look at Gaza

Following the Israeli Gaza bombardment, the second in the last four years, Hamas was quick to declare victory. The two sides had reached a ceasefire, which most likely was similar to the one that they were about to sign just a week before the Israeli operation began. During the week long campaign, in the name of self-defense, the Israelis used excessive force (an understatement), bombing Gaza’s infrastructure, and killing over 160 people. While Israelis claim this was done to stop the firing of rockets on their civilian population, which under no circumstances can be condoned, it is safe to say that the escalation could have been avoided, and was sparked by Israel, following the assassination of Hamas leader, Ahmad al-Jabari. 

Israel signed the ceasefire seemingly to avoid a ground invasion. Prime Minister Netanyahu knew too well that a botched operation could spoil his plans to be re-elected in January. And, if it was not due to election speculation, the fact is that Israel was not able to stop the rockets from showering Israel, even after wreaking mass havoc. So, in that sense, Israel did not win. But, did they lose? Certainly, not; in this game that has gone on far too long, there are no "winners," and the losers are the masses of people who are caught up in the fire of their politicians, who recklessly "fight in their name." 
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On Gaza Affair and Regional issues, plus Hard Questions for Israel, click here

Relation between the Gaza Affair and Israeli Elections, click here
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Therefore, an Israeli non-victory also does not equal a Hamas victory; something Hamas claimed, following the signing of the ceasefire.  Yes, they succeeded to hit Tel Aviv with their rockets; the last time this happened was in 1991, when during the first Gulf War Iraq fired scud missiles, much larger than the Hamas rockets. Hamas also succeeded in holding their own; but to claim that this was a victory is absurd. Especially, at what cost! During the midst of fighting, I simply did not buy Hamas’ persistence to shoot rockets into Israel as a noble resistance, and I placed it on the same level as the Israelis’ sick obsession of bombing the hell out of Gaza. The Hamas’ policy of continued resistance (shooting rockets) can only be interpreted as one of "we will go down with the ship no matter what, taking all of our passengers with us." And, for all those claiming victory, they should open their eyes and see that for Hamas, this was a major blow, but for Gaza it was much bigger.

Not Hamas, Not Israel, let the Palestinian People be the Victors  

I should hope that after all this pain and suffering that the real victors will be the Palestinian people. In four days, on November 29, 65 years after the UN declared that Palestine would be divided into a Jewish and Arab state, it is likely that Palestine is going to be recognized by the UN General Assembly as a non-member state. As it stands now, the Palestinians have a chance to win the needed 2/3 of the vote, with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas set on moving forward, despite Israel’s threats to topple him if he succeeds.  Now, the time has come for the world to stand up and recognize Palestine. Yes, most likely, the United States and Europe will object or sustain; yet, if they do so, this will be a stain on these countries, especially after the Gaza operation. For US President, Barack Obama, this is gus chance to prove to the world that he is serious about reaching a comprehensive peace settlement (see former blog related to this)    

For Gaza, they urgently need the status of statehood.  Once this is achieved it will be a golden opportunity for the world to take steps to end the blockade, and second, to take responsibility to solve the real crisis in Gaza: mass poverty, unemployment, coupled with one of the highest birthrates on the planet (see below). The time has come for Gaza, regardless which government rules there, or what actions are taken, that the world take notice of the suffering that has gone on there for decades. 

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I have provided some staggering statistics below, which show the sheer desperation Gazans face on a daily basis:

Population: 1,710,257 (Gaza City is one of the most densely populated places in the whole world!)

43.8% 0-14 years of age (male 384,494/ female 363,818)

54.7% 15-63 (male 469,528/ female 448,182)

65 years and over: 2.6% (male 17,939/ female 26,296) (2012 est.)

Median Age male-17.9 years old (some statistics places this even at 14)

Infant mortality about 17/1000 births

Unemployment rate: 40% (184^th country out of 201)

Poverty Rate 38%

Literacy rate: 92.4%

Facts from Institute for Middle East Understanding, based on a UN Report

• Gazan households spend 56 percent of their expenditures on food, with 52.5 percent eating lower quality food and 67 percent buying food on credit as a result of high food costs.
• 54 percent of households face food insecurity, defined as inadequate physical, social or economic access to food. An additional 12 percent are considered vulnerable to food insecurity. Only 20 percent of Gazan households are food secure.
• 38 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.
• Since the blockade began, the number of Palestinian refugees completely unable to secure access to food and lacking the means to purchase even the most basic items, such as soap, school stationery and safe drinking water (‘abject poverty’) has tripled to 300,000.
• 75 percent of households polled by the World Food Programme in the Gaza Strip received outside aid.
• Gaza’s hospitals are at “zero stock levels” for 178 of 480 essential medications, with another 69 at low stock. Of 700 essential medical supplies, 190 are at “zero stock levels” and another 70 at low stock.
• Due to lack of fuel, the Gaza Power Plant runs at 45 percent capacity, leading to daily blackouts of eight to twelve hours. Given this fuel shortage, 90 percent of private cars are no longer driven and of public services, only 15 percent are operational. (Palestinian Centre for Human Rights, The Illegal Closure of the Gaza Strip: Collective Punishment of the Civilian Population, December 10, 2010)
• The Gaza aquifer provides 90 percent of Gaza’s water. Only ten percent of that water meets the standards of being suitable for consumption. Water-borne diseases cause 26 percent of illnesses in Gaza.
• Because of lack of treatment capacity and electricity, Gaza authorities must release around 80,000 cubic meters of sewage into the Mediterranean Sea on a daily basis.
• The construction of 86,000 houses is required to meet natural growth and recover from previous Israeli invasions.

• Economic output per capita has fallen by 40 percent of 1994 levels.
• 95 percent of Gaza’s 3,900 industrial businesses are closed or have suspended work. The other five percent are operating at 20 to 50 percent of capacity. This has cost between 100,000 and 120,000 jobs.
• Israeli restrictions block access to 35 percent of Gaza’s agricultural land and fishermen are forbidden to fish beyond 3 nautical miles from the shore. In 2010,employment in agriculture fell from 14,900 to 10,100.
• While Gaza needs 670,000 truckloads of construction material, an average of 715 enter per month, at 11% of pre-blockade levels. The construction industry now has 10,000 workers, 42 percent of pre-blockade levels.
• Unemployment is at 45.2 percent, with only 40.3 percent of working-age Gazans in the labor force. Youth unemployment is at more than 47 percent.
• 290 truckloads of exports were allowed out of Gaza between November 2010 and May 2011. Before the siege, more than 960 truckloads a month exited Gaza. This is onlyfive percent of pre-blockade levels.
• In 2011, a weekly average of 900 truckloads of goods entered Gaza. Before the siege, 2,807 truckloads entered weekly.
• On March 2, 2011, Israel closed the Karni crossing, forcing importers and exporters to use the Kerem Shalom crossing. For wheat exporters, this increased transport costs by 235 percent and for wheat importers by 30 percent.
• Between June 2010 and March 2011, the cost of wheat flour increased by 50 percent and vegetable oil increased by 40 percent. Meanwhile, the average wage has decreased by more than 25 percent since 2007.

The Escalation in Gaza: its Twitterization and how Operation Hits at the Heart of Israeli Democracy (Israeli 2013 Election Coverage, 3)

Late yesterday afternoon (in Istanbul), while doing my evening shop in a supermarket a beep came from i-phone. It was an update from Yedioth Ahronot, informing me that Israel had set off on Operation Pillar of Defense against the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. I sighed, grabbed enough food to make dinner, and within minutes had returned home to see the developments. 

Twitterization of the Conflict

Well, my fears were immediately confirmed. First, turning on the BBC, news was coming in of a massive Israeli onslaught, which began with the targeted assassination of Hamas military leader, Ahmad al-Jabari.  However, as a relatively new twitter user, I knew this would provide me with good sources to see how this struggle was playing out.  In English, Hebrew, Arabic, and Turkish, I scanned the tweets, one by one.  One tweet was from Gaza announcing bombs going off, another Gazan mentioned that rockets had just been fired at Israel; within minutes, an Israeli tweeted that sirens had just gone off in Beer Sheva. In other words, I was watching the war from my home in Istanbul, succumbed by the feeling that I was there.  Definitely, a post-modern reality. Not surprisingly, I later learned that the Israeli army first announced the beginning of the operation via their twitter account.  

I myself began to tweet in different languages. In Turkish I tweeted one thing, in Hebrew another, and English something different (need to add Arabic fonts!), trying to speak to different communities. It turned out to be a frustrating exercise since I know if I was in Israel I would have been out in the street demonstrating, shouting out in a full voice: no to escalation, no to war! Yes, by tweeting I was actually addressing a group, who I could not see. In a street demonstration, I can capture the eyes of thousands, it is real-time, with real reactions of people, some clapping and others cursing. In fact, almost four years ago, I was in Israel during Operation Cast Lead and we did that: together Jews and Palestinians, we took to the streets.

The Escalation and the Upcoming Israeli Elections

Yes, it has been four years since the last Israeli-Palestinian war in Gaza. Sadly, neither social media, nor people protesting, have succeeded in finding some way to convince both Israelis and Palestinians to give up arms and find a solution. This latest escalation is typical.  It began last week as skirmish on the Gaza-Israel border between Hamas and the Israeli army, leading to Israeli reprisal and Hamas shooting rockets into Israel’s southern cities. Which side was “first” is not important.  By targeting Jabari, Israel knew that this was a declaration of war, and rather than continuing the negotiations for a cease-fire, they escalated.

What is worrying is the timing of the escalation.  With the Israeli elections just a little over two months away, many analysts are accusing Israeli PM Netanyahu as using the onslaught to convince the Israeli people of his ability to manage a major operation, especially since he has made it clear that he believes Israel should target Iran, in the event they are close to obtaining nuclear arms. For his Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, who now leads the small Atsmaut (Independence) Party, after defecting from Labor, a successful operation might actually give his party enough votes to cross the threshold to enter parliament. 

Well, we can speculate all we want, and I am sure that there was not a scenario where Netanyahu and Barak sat down and said to one another, “time to start a war.”; however, how could this not be in the back of their minds. In any case, Netanyahu must be quite confident of the operation's success since dragging in Israel to a major conflict could also lead to him losing elections. With Israel being militarily superior, this scenario seems unlikely.*

I will conclude by saying then, yes, Israel has a right to defend itself, just like the Palestinians have a right to defend themselves. However, what might be at stake here is actually the Israeli democracy itself. The truth be known, the recent escalation could have been diverted, which leads us to the simple but loaded question:

In a democracy, doesn't the launching of such an operation before an election counter the essence of a democratic system? I would say yes, and therefore argue that the timing of this operation is not only an attack on Gaza, but also on democracy and the future essence of the Israeli state.

*Israeli superiority is also related to changes in regional politics, which I will address in an upcoming blog.