Turkey's Latest Challenges

During the last month, the Turkish press has been focused on the Syrian refugee crisis, and the resurgence of clashes between the Turkish military and the PKK.  The growing turmoil surrounding these two issues stands as a major challenge to the Turkish government since it has found itself void of any real answers on how to handle them.   

Almost two weeks ago, Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, campaigned the UN Security Council to set up a buffer zone in Syria in order to stem the flow of refugees to Turkey. Currently, there are approximately 80,000 refugees located in 11 camps situated along Turkey's southern borders, coming in close second after Jordan as the country which has the most Syrians (see UN report dated 07/00/2012). Davutoglu's proposal however fell on deaf ears with only five Foreign Ministers of the 15 council members taking part and all parties involved declaring the plan as unrealistic. For Turkey, whose influence in the Middle East has been growing since the downfall of dictatorships in the Arab world, this was a major disappointment and a diplomatic fiasco.

A few days following the meeting in New York, Turkey started turning refugees away with many stranded at the border. It is reported that approximately 10,000 people are waiting to enter Turkey, with Turkish authorities announcing that they will only be able to cross the border after the needed facilities are available (see above UN report). In one case, a woman was allowed to give birth in a Turkish hospital but after two days was forced to return to trepid conditions on the Syrian side with her newly born twins.  In addition to these refugees, thousands of Syrians have entered Turkey as tourists, possessing the necessary resources to live in hotels. In Istanbul alone, there are many Syrians who are waiting for the day they are able to return home.  For some, Turkey is only a base to move on to Europe, with some opting to be smuggled out. However this also can end in tragedy.  Last week, a boat smuggling refugees sank off the Turkish coast, killing over 60, including many women and children.  

Lastly, Turkish opposition members have accused the Turkish government of allowing the Free Syrian Army (FSA) to train in the Apaydin camp, which is housing Syrian soldiers and officers who have defected.  While the government denies that this camp is used as a base to launch attacks on Syrian army strongholds, members of the FSA have suggested otherwise. Many reports in the Turkish press have focused on the fighters’ radical Islamic elements, claiming that this camp is also home to al-Qaeda and jihadist factions. They are right to be concerned if it is true that the camp might also be home to radicals from such places as Chechnya andAfghanistan. In fact, even if these groups are making leeway on the ground, we must not forget the fact that Syrians from all sects and religions support the uprising and the continued use of radical groups as fighters will only come back and hit the region like a boomerang. 

It is in the above context that many Turkish pundits are worried about how the continued struggle in Syria will influence events in Turkey. Less than a month ago, a bomb went off in the southern city of Gaziantep, killing eight people, including children.  While the PKK first denied their involvement all evidence points towards to it as the culprit and no evidence of Syrian involvement was uncovered. In any case, it sent a clear message that violence like a brush fire could easily jump over the border.  Further, this summer the PKK has also shown Turkey that they are stronger than many might have previously assessed, carrying out significant raids on Turkish military and police outposts. Lately, the Turkish evening news and newspapers have been filled with pictures of young soldiers who have fallen victim to this decades-old conflict. 

Since coming to power in 2003, Prime Minister Erdogan has taken serious measures at solving the Kurdish issue. However, since last year’s elections, he has found himself at odds with the mostly Kurdish parliamentarians representing the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and both sides seem farther than ever at reaching a compromise. This was exactly the message the BDP parliament members were sending Erdogan, when they were photographed embracing PKK fighters in the hills of the southeast. Outraging the PM, he is now making calls to renounce their political immunity in hopes they will be tried in a court for supporting a terrorist organization. However, such a move will only alienate a larger part of the Kurdish population. With Syria on the brink of political fallout, which could lead to even more violence and chaos than we have seen until now, Turkey needs more than ever to diffuse the situation in its southeastern regions.     

   

Edging towards War: Netanyahu takes on Obama

Last spring in my Palestinian-Israeli conflict class, we periodically dealt with current events. Our class discussions reflected much of what the students followed in the mainstream media, and during those months it seemed as though Israel was preparing to attack Iran at any moment.  In fact, I commented that it almost seemed as if there was a concerted effort to notify Iran of the eventual attack.  However, by the end of the semester, the tension eased and a full-out Israeli-Iranian war was put on the back burner, while the US continued to work through diplomatic means to force the Iranians to rethink their race towards becoming a nuclear-armed state.

Well as the summer is now coming to a close, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, have succeeded in putting Iran back on the agenda. However, now the level of speech concerning an Israeli strike has surpassed that of last spring and has left all the actors in the region on edge. Literally for the past two weeks, the Israeli media has been discussing the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program on a daily basis, presenting multiple scenarios and timelines.  What has emerged is worrying, since it is tangled up with an outright duel between Netanyahu and Barak on one side and President Barack Obama on the other.

The scenario is simple: Israel will unilaterally strike Iran before the US elections, which will in essence force Obama to support the Israeli move and Israel’s “right to defend itself,” even though the Obama administration is convinced that a military strike is premature.  Of course, with Mitt Romney courting Israel at all costs, Obama will need to appear defiant in his support for Israel. Clearly, this tactic does not need to lead to an actual Israeli strike, since even the threat of one before the elections is enough for Netanyahu to reap fruits, such as Obama committing to an American airstrike after the elections (which some pundits have been discussing). Let us remember that Netanyahu is no stranger to meddling in US politics.  Back in 1998, President Clinton pressured Netanyahu (during his first term) to negotiate with the Palestinians. Upon arriving to meet with Clinton and Yasser Arafat, Netanyahu chose to meet first with a Clinton adversary, US Evangelical leader Jerry Falwell, along with a thousand supporters, to send a strong message to Clinton that he also could play the pressure game.    

The Obama administration thus far has not caved to this pressure,  and has even warned Israel that the time is not right. US Defense Minister Panetta has stated that the use of force should be a last resort, and General Martin Dempsey, US Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staffs, maintains that an Israeli strike will only “delay but not destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities.” On Israel’s Channel Two, Michael Oren, the Israeli ambassador to the US and a staunch supporter of Netanyahu, rebuffed the American “advice” and reiterated Israel’s right to self-defense. He argued that even a unilateral strike that would only “delay” the Iranian nuclear program might be sufficient for the time being.  

For now, the Netanyahu-Barak coalition is shunning the chorus of opposition in Israel to a unilateral Israeli strike, which has been voiced among members of the military establishment and most recently by Israeli President Shimon Peres.  This voice of reason was not welcomed among the Netanyahu administration, which reminded Peres that the Israeli presidency is merely ceremonial and is supposed to remain above (and out of) politics. 

While I have not focused on the regional implications of a unilateral Israeli strike, it is clear that, with Syria in disarray and the Middle East fresh from the downfall of dictatorships, many scenarios can play out.  However, unlike past Israeli wars, this one could actually place the majority of the Israeli population under a major assault. It is therefore safe to say that Netanyahu is playing with fire.

For now, we will need to wait to see how Netanyahu plays his cards. With Israel appointing Avi Dichter last week as Home Front Defense Minister, it appears that they will need some time to prepare their citizens for war, leaving the possibility for a strike within the next the few weeks highly unlikely. Also, it would make sense that the next event to wait for is an Obama-Netanyahu meeting in mid-September at the opening of the United Nations General Assembly. The question remains whether such a meeting will defuse the tension between the two leaders. When Netanyahu arrives in the US, it will be interesting to see if he will first meet with Romney in order to embarrass Obama, as in the above mentioned 1998 case.  What is certain is that Netanyahu’s tactics prove once again how detrimental he can be to Israel’s world standing. Clearly, more than any other leader in Israeli history, Netanyahu has completely isolated Israel, and it seems that he will continue to choose this option.   

The Death of Moshe Silman: An Israeli Tragedy

A weekly protest for social justice taken July 7 2012

This last week a lot happened in Israel. From the tragic terrorist attack on Israelis in Bourgas Bulgaria, to Kadima’s pulling out of the government, the news channels have been filled with plenty of “headlines." These headlines also included the death of Moshe Silman, a protestor who was became known among the protesters in Haifa as someone dedicated the cause.  On July 14, at the weekly protests set at reigniting last year’s massive protests Moshe Silman set himself on fire as a last attempt to have the government recognize and address his difficult social situation.  The video itself of him setting himself was shocking to say the least, with ninety percent of his body receiving burns.  Once set on fire, the shocked crowds around him did everything possible to put out the flames, dowsing him with what little bottle water they had and hitting with any materials they had to extinguish the fire.  Once put out, Moshe managed to prop himself up and shout a few slogans calling for tsedek hevreti-social justice, then ate a popsicle which a policeman gave him, and finally was whisked away by an ambulance. On Friday, July 20, he died.  Since his case, other desperate people have set themselves on fire. 

I could go into details about Moshe’s story; however, I choose not to. For those who wish to read more about him (see link for one I suggest), there is plenty of news articles dedicated to his life and the daily struggles he faced to stay afloat, to work with pride, and to live in decent housing.  Moshe is the story of so many struggling Israelis.  On my last trip to Israel, and with every passing trip, I am always shocked at the deterioration of the Israel society. The gap between rich and poor is striking and the injustices can be seen with little effort. The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had the nerve to say that Moshe Silman’s story was one of a personal tragedy.  What hutzpah! We should not and will not forget Moshe Silman, the one who dared to challenge the Israeli injustices, to stand face-to-face with the bureaucratic machine which even if it ends up providing social services does so only after a humiliating journey.   

                                  

Below is the translated letter left by Moshe Silman (published on the following blog entry which also provides a detailed and eyewitness account of the event including pictures, which I have chosen not to reproduce). It says it all; I will not comment:

The State of Israel has stolen from me and robbed me, left me with nothing,
and the Tel Aviv District Court blocked me from getting justice.
The registrar at the Tel Aviv District court, broke the law, disrupted legal proceedings, out of condescension.
It won’t even assist me with my rental fees
Two committees from the Ministry of Housing have rejected me, despite the fact that I have undergone a stroke and was granted 100 percent work disability
Ask the manager of [state-owned housing company] Amidar, in Hafia, on Hanevi’im Street.
I blame the State of Israel
I blame Bibi Netanyahu
and [Minister of Finance] Yuval Steinitz
both scum
for the humiliation that disenfranchised citizens go through day in and day out, that take from the poor and give to the rich, and to public servants
those that serve the State of Israel
The National Health Insurance, especially the manager of their operations, and the manager of their claims department, on Lincoln Street in Tel Aviv, who illegally seized my work equipment for my truck.
The Haifa National Insurance Institute branch, who abused me for a year until I was granted disability
That I pay NIS 2300 per month in Health Insurance taxes and even more for my medicine
I have no money for medicine or rent. I can’t make the money after I have paid my millions in taxes I did the army, and until age 46 I did reserve duty
I refuse to be homeless, this is why I am protesting
Against all the injustices done to me by the State, me and others like me..."