July 17, 2012
The Syrian Uprising which started in March 2011 seem as it
has at last reached its breaking point. After over 18,000 people killed, it
seems that Bashar Assad days are numbered. Until now, Assad has succeeded in keeping
the uprising on the periphery, far from the Damascus centre, and believed that
he would be able to stamp out the winds of change through violent massacres of
innocent civilians, bombarding numerous cities.
While the Syrian uprising was at first confined to peaceful protests
over the last six months numerous opposition groups took up arms, causing fear
that what we have is actually the beginnings of a full-fledged civil war. During
the last days, Damascus has slowly become the center of the opposition assaults
and today Assad has received his biggest hit to date, one that it is likely he
will not be able to overcome. A daily meeting of Assad’s inner-circle and highest
officials was targeted internally, when a bomb was set off killing the DefenseMinister Daud Rajiha, “the highest profile pro-Assad figure to be killed,” his long time family confidante and
brother-n-law Asif Shawkat, former Defense Minister Hasan Turkmani, and
seriously injuring the Chief of Intelligence Hisham Bekhtyar and the Minister
of Interior Muhammad Shaar, among others.
It is clear that the opposition forces in Syria have shown
that they do have the strength to bring down the Assad regime. The fact that such a mission was completed
under the noses of these high ranking officials just shows the cracks in the
system, not to mention the growing numbers of officials choosing to flee for
the surrounding countries of Jordan and Turkey. For now, the UN will continue to work to secure
an unanimous vote in the Security Council condemning the Assad regime,
something that only can be one if Russia agrees. However, it seems that the
Syrians will not, and have not, waited for the world to act since simply the
world already abandoned the Syrians long ago. Lastly, while some analysts warn
of a civil war following the ousting of Assad I would argue that
this is unlikely. It seems that after today even the upper and middle classes
of Damascus who supported the regime in the name of stability and fear of the
unknown will submit themselves to the new order which will emerge. Not like Egypt also, once Assad goes, so does
the army officials, and there could be a real chance for reconciliation, also among
the different sectarian groups.
As much as I want Assad to abdicate, I don't think it will be soon. 18,000 people have died but we are talking about a country of 20 million where half the population is divided between Aleppo and Damascus. Recent events in Damascus shows perhap the improved ability of the opposition but they are far from their goal. They reached Damascus after a year and a half's resistance. They are at the gates but not yet inside.
ReplyDeleteDamascus is also Bashar's fortress. He fought for control of some minor cities. Surely he will be defending Damascus with much vigor. He will be gone but not anytime soon. I still believe that only a foreign military assistance/invasion can turn the tables around significantly.