At the end of March 2014, Turkey will once again head to the polls to vote
in mayors for the country’s municipalities, marking five years since the
previous ones, and almost three years since the 2011 national elections. While
local elections do not always serve as an indicator for the general public’s
confidence in a ruling party, there is no doubt that the upcoming elections in
Turkey is quickly turning into a referendum for the ruling AK Party, which
received almost fifty percent of the vote in the last national elections. 
Actually, it is not the opposition parties that are treating this as a
referendum, who obviously know the stakes are high; rather, it is Turkey’s
strong Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is pushing this stance. We
have to remember that Erdogan is at his best during elections, and during the
past few weeks he has been campaigning “full-steam ahead.” 
Ever since the Gezi Park protests, in fact, Erdogan has been on a non-stop
campaign challenging his opponents, or anyone who has the potential to
challenge his hegemony, one-by-one. Most
recently, in an attempt to consolidate power within his own party, the Turkish
prime minister opened a front against the Gülen movement, or what is known in
Turkish as the Hizmet (Service) movement, or the Cemaat (the
Society). However, it is still premature to see how the unfolding row will play
out in the upcoming local elections. Clearly, the twitter wars between the two camps has showed us just how messy Turkish politics can become. 
What is clear is that Erdogan’s constant divisive “powerhouse” politics
will most likely lead to a decline in his support, something I already claimed
just two weeks before the Gezi protests. However, let us not lose sight, local
elections can be misleading; it is important to remember that Erdoğan also
treated the 2009 elections as a referendum and despite the opposition parties
gaining some ground, just two years later, in the national elections, he swept
the ballots, getting almost 50% of the general vote (see my former blogs on 2009
local election, and 2011 national
elections). 
The key to any true success on behalf of the main opposition party, the
Republican People’s Party (CHP), will depend greatly on how dynamic their
candidates are, and the party’s ability to open the door to communities they
have shunned in this past. In Istanbul, and the other major cities, utilizing
the space the Gezi Park protests created without exploiting it will be central;
in other words, the party will need to capture the overall population’s imagination,
heightening spirits that change is possible.
During the next 3.5 months, I will be covering different aspects of the
elections and focusing on how other parties, such as the newly formed Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) and how its candidate for Istanbul, the Gezi protester
and MP, Sırrı Süreyya Önder, will influence the race. On the same token, I will
be watching if CHP’s choice of Mustafa Sarıgul to run for mayor in Istanbul was
a good or bad one (he will officially open his campaign this Thursday).
Further, I will give a rundown of the other cities and regions, looking at
which parties are most likely to make gains, or hold ground, such as the Peace
and Democratic Party (BDP) in the southeastern Kurdish regions, and the
National Action Party (MHP), in the western regions and some cities in the
interior. Indeed, this election should
be an exciting one!
*The coverage will be indexed as seen above in title
Cemaat does not mean society. It means 'congregation' as in a mosque or prayer meeting. Since the opposition parties have virtually zilch organisation these days, unlike a generation ago, it should still be an easy win for Erdogan, though if he drops to 40% support because of defections in the big cities, I guess some people will read a setback into this. Don't forget a year from now, most likely he will be President of the Republic.
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