A Turkish telenovela could not
have had a better script: last Tuesday morning, police forces completed an
early morning raid detaining some of the country’s top political, social, and
business elite: An Iranian-Azeri businessmen, married to a famous pop-star;
three government ministers’ sons; the CEO of a government bank; a
multi-millionaire construction tycoon; and a local mayor of Istanbul’s
Fatih district, a member of the ruling government. Within hours of the arrest,
it was clear that this would be one of the greatest scandals in Turkish
history, a graft probe that connected the lives of the rich and famous with the
country’s top politicians.
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| Reza Zarrab (left) with Turkish Minister Suat Kılıç (right) |
Since news broke almost a week ago, we
have learned that the raid was related to three different probes, and two of
the big names, each belonging to a different probe, have been released awaiting
trial: the construction mogul, Ali Agaoglu, and the mayor of Fatih
municipality, Mustafa Demir. While these two probes are quite telling on their
own accord, the graft probe that has shaken the Turkish political world to the core is related
to the arrest of Reza Zarrab, the Iranian-Azeri businessman (married to the famous singer Ebru Gündes), who is accused of paying off millions of
dollars to high-ranking personalities, such as, two government ministers’ sons,
and the CEO of the state ran bank, Halkbank. Further, it is alleged that Egemen
Bağış, the Turkish Minister of EU Affairs, was central in acquiring Turkish
citizenship for Zarrab, and rumored that the Economic Minister,
Zafer Cağlayan, whose son was arrested, received a $350,000 watch as a present from Zarrab.
During the last week, Turkey's once believed-invincible Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been working hard to close the pandora’s box that has been opened: following
the arrests, he sacked tens of high-ranking police officers involved in the
trial, and is placing great pressures on the judicial system. Similar to his
reaction during the Gezi Park protests, the Prime Minister, is trying to
convince all that this is the work of secret forces; some pro-government
newspaper outlets have placed blame on the US, while others on the likely candidate, Israel (surely it must be the Jews behind this). However, the
gravity of this embarrassment is not the fact that his government is condoning
rampant corruption, rather, more and more, it seems like it is an integral part
of it.
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| Reza Zarrab in background steps away from Turkish Minister Egemen Bağış (right) |
Just days ago, numerous photos have hit
the press showing Reza Zarrab at official state events and ceremonies, leading
some to cynically suggest that Zarrab should be declared as an honorary member
of the government. While there is no photo of him with the Prime Minister, he
appears twice with the PM’s wife, Emine Erdoğan, together with Suat Kılıç, the up-and-coming favorite Minister of Erdoğan, in a photo with the previously mentioned Minister, Egemen Bagis, and with the
wife of the Interior Minister, Muammer Güler, whose son was
one of the ones arrested. In other words, from the photos it is apparent that Reza Zarrab had very
close relations with many in the high-echelons of the governing AK party; further, his presence at
official openings begs the question whether or not he or his wife, Gündeş, contributed illegal monies to public
institutions.
Zarrab’s close relations is damning to
the AK Party’s image that was elected as an anti-corruption party. During their
eleven years in power, rumors of corruption have come-and-gone, and with over
four-hundred billion dollars of foreign investment energizing Turkey’s economy,
and the subsequent over-the-top construction boom, corruption seems almost unavoidable
(something that is central to the two previous probes that were mentioned at
the beginning of the article). However, most damaging to the party, is the fact
that Erdoğan has decided to challenge the allegations head-on, risking a head-on collision with the Turkish electorate, which despite all his
rallying, must simply be tired of the endless controversy; yes, some Turkish citizens
might have not been the most sympathetic to the Gezi Park protests, but this
too took a toll on them. Now, if Erdogan does not quickly take control (with no
signs of this in the future), he is at risk of being left alone, with a much
less (even if consolidated) numbered of die-hard supporters.
If this was not enough, with the Gülen Movement accused as being the perpetrators, uncovering
of this scandal, it is hard to imagine that the party will be able to make up
the votes lost due to the parting of this once staunch ally. Furthermore, even if it is too early
to predict how this scandal will play out, it perhaps is time to ask how much
longer members of Erdoğan’s party will put up with this circus;
at what point will respectable members of his cabinet jump ship. Such as, Foreign
Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, who, despite criticism of his
foreign policy, remains a serious politician that could lead a conservative
agenda in Turkey. Lastly, it seems more likely than ever that Turkey’s
president, Abdullah Gül, also will
remain unscathed from these scandals, and this could be an opportunity to strengthen his hold over Turkish politics.
In the first article of my series on the upcoming Turkish local elections, I ended by saying that this season will be
interesting to say the least, no one could have predicted such a major fallout.
What is clear is that if there was any chance for opposition parties to make
gains against the AK Party, the time is now. Also, if Erdoğan weathers this storm, he certainly he will hold up his reputation as being the political genius, as we all know him as; but the question remains, at what price.
Whatever comes out of this political scandal, it is clear that the biggest loser from this graft probe will not be one politician or another, truly, it is the Turkish state's standing among its citizens, and in the world. They say in Turkish, yazık (it's a pity); simply put, this probe cannot be described in any other way.
Peace Process with Turkey’s Kurdish citizens is Erdogan’s last remaining card to play for restoring his seriously depreciated international reputation and reliability. So far, after the corruption probes, Kurds have been very sensitive and loyal to the peace process (as they did during the Gezi Uprising). It won’t surprise me to see some real steps from AKP toward the solution of the Kurdish Issue in 2014. Releasing the Kurdish parliament members from jail would be the first and the most meaningful move. It is also very remarkable that we could see some new photos of Ocalan last week. Sadly it did not take as much attention as it deserved. His name will be as important as Erdogan and Gulen in 2014.
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