This Time for Palestine: A Melancholy Victory and a Strong Message to Israel

The UN Vote; Photo from Al-Quds Newspaper website.

Less than an hour ago, Palestine, was recognized by the UN General Assembly as a state. Even if the Palestinians still have a far way to reach statehood, tonight confirmed the urgency in establishing a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza strip. The President of Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas, must be congratulated for his strategy of taking practical steps, which has led his people to this day.

The Israeli government has worked hard during the last few days to downplay the significance of tonight’s vote. However, their recent actions just show us how out of touch with reality they have become. Now that the vote is over, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, cannot escape the fact that the vote for Palestine was a major defeat for a government that did everything possible to grab more land, while stalling the peace process. However, more importantly, the vote for Palestine marks something much more significant, showing the Israelis that the dream of a Greater Israel, was only that –a dream.

Palestinians Celebrating Photo from Al-Quds Newspaper Website

Yes, tonight marks the start of the decolonization of Palestine; not of historical Palestine, but of the West Bank and Gaza strip. Tonight, Israelis need to ask their politicians why for the last 45 years, they have clung onto the idea that Israel could legitimately rule over a mass population, stripped of civil and political rights. Or, ask themselves, why have they opted to ignore the injustices, and turned their backs, perhaps in sheer exhaustion of the conflict.  

I wish I could be optimistic; however, I also fear the future. The work ahead of us will be painful on both sides. Violence can erupt at a moment’s notice, spiraling out of control. Therefore, each side will have to work to do its utmost to work for reconciliation in their own camps, preparing the way for a comprehensive peace agreement. Let us not forget, that it was 65 years ago tonight that Palestine was thrown into a bloody civil war between Arab and Jew, costing each side one percent of their population, and leading to a refugee problem which continues until today.

Lastly, to the skeptics, among them Palestinians (and a minority of  Jews), who support a one-state solution, believing the two peoples should live under one flag, with the principles of a liberal democracy of “one person one vote.” I say the following: let us work towards the two-state solution, and if peace prevails, together we can think of creative solutions, such as two-states no borders, a confederacy, or, yes, a one state solution. In the end, it will be the people on both sides who decide. 

For now, I will take this opportunity, to congratulate Palestine, and the Palestinians. As I watched the UN Vote from my home in Istanbul, I took the time to remember all the demonstrations for Palestine we took part it in, Israelis and Palestinians together, remembering the tears we shed, both from happiness and sadness. Now, a once distant thought of a free Palestine, alongside Israel, seems closer than ever. 

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Gazzeye bakış: Kim zafer kazandı? Hamas mı yoksa İsrail mi? (Turkish Version)*

İsrail’in Gazze’ye olan saldırısı iki tarafında ateşkes ilan etmesiyle sonuçlandı. Hamas, İsrail’in Gazze’ye karşı son 4 yılda 2. kez düzenlediği saldırının ardıdan zaferini çabuk ilan etti. Halbuki bu büyük saldırı gerçekleşmeden bir hafta önce taraflar süregelen kavgaları bitirmek üzere çalışma içerisindeydi. Neredeyse bir hafta süren operasyonda İsrail, kendini savunma bahanesiyle Gazze’nin her yerini bombaladı ve 160’dan fazla kişinin ölümüne neden oldu. İsrail’in, kendi sivillerini hedef alan roketleri durdurabilmek adına savunma amaçlı saldırıları gerçekleştirdiğini ifade etmesi şartlar her ne olursa olsun bu saldırıların kabul görüp göz yumulmasını haklı çıkarmıyor. İsrail, Hamas lideri Ahmad Al-Jabari’yi öldürmeseydi savaşla sonuçlanan bu gerginliğin durdurulması ya da başlamadan önlenebilmesi de mümkün olabilirdi.

Diğer yandan İsrail, kara harekȃtı gerçekleştirmekten kaçındığı için ateşkes ilan etmiş gibi görünüyor. Başbakan Netanyahu baştan savma planlanmış olan bu harekȃtın Ocak ayındaki yeni seçimler için hazırladığı planları sekteye uğratabileceğini çok iyi biliyordu. Büyük bir yıkımla sona eren öc alma planının, her ne kadar seçim planlarıyla da alakası olmadığı düşünülse bile bundan böyle Gazze’den gelecek roketleri durduracağının da garantisini vermiyor. Bu bağlamda İsrail’in kazanmış olması da mevzu bahis değil. Peki kaybettiğinden bahsedilebilir mi? Tabi ki hayır. Hamas, Tel Aviv’i vurmasının ardından gücü elnde bulundurduğunu yani bir bakıma amacına ulaşmış olduğunu düşünebilir. Ancak bu eylemi gerçekleştirmesi, İsrail’den bir farkının olmadığını da gözler önüne seriyor. Bu nedenle bir bakıma mağduriyet ekseninden doğan Hamas zaferi, gerçek dışı olduğu kadar kabul de edilemez. Dışarıdan bakıldığında, tarafların umarsızca yaptığı politik kavgalar doğrultusunda hayatını yitiren sayısız insanın, bu savaşın kaybedenleri olarak kayıtlara geçmesine neden oluyor. Dolayısıyla uzun yıllar boyunca, deyim yerindeyse süren bu kirli oyunun maalesef kazananlarının olmadığı sonucu ortaya çıkıyor.

Ne Hamas, ne de İsrail. Zafer Filistin halkının olmalı.

Umarım bu kirli oyun, yaşanan tüm olay ve acılardan sonra Filistin halkının zaferiyle sonuçlanır. Dört gün sonra, 29 Kasım’da, Birleşmiş Milletlerin Filistin’in Arap ve Yahudi devleti olmak üzere iki ayrı devletten oluşması gerektiğini açıklamasından tam 65 yıl sonra, Filistin ilk defa Birleşmiş Milletler’e üye olmayan devlet statüsüne sahip olacak. Durum böyle olunca, İsrail’in her ne kadar başarılı olduğu takdirde Filistin’in ilerleyip bu noktaya gelmesini sağlayan Cumhurbaşkanı Mahmoud Abbas’ı devireceğini söylese de, BM’den gereken oyları toplayacak gibi görünüyor. Geriye ise tüm dünyanın Filistin Devleti’nin varlığını kabul etmesi kalıyor. Bu durum aynı zamanda Barack Obama’ya kabul edilebilir bir barış antlaşması hakkında ciddi olduğunu gösterebilme şansı da doğuruyor. Ancak Amerika ya da Avrupa, özellikle son Gazze saldırısından sonra hala Filistin’i meşru bir devlet olarak kabul etmeyip yeni engellere gebe olursa, bu kararları kendilerine yapışacak kara bir leke olarak yorumlanabilecektir.

Bu noktada Gazze’nin, devlet olabilmek için gereken unsurları bir an önce yerine getirmesi gerekiyor. Bu durum gerçekleştiği takdirde dünya; ambargoyu kaldırma, fakirlik, işsizlik, gezegendeki en yüksek doğum oranı sorunsalı gibi Gazze’nin gerçek problemlerini çözmek üzere sorumluluk alabilme fırsatına da sahip olacaktır. Şu anda hangi hükümetin iktidarda olduğuna, hangi eylemlerin gerçekleştirildiğine bakılmaksızın onyıllarca süren bu acının sona erdirilmesi gerektiğinden, zaman “Gazze zamanı”dır.

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*Bu makale İngilizceden tercüme edilmiştir: "Who can declare Victory, Hamas? Israel?, Plus a Look at Gaza" (25.11.2012) 

Who can declare Victory, Hamas? Israel?, Plus a Look at Gaza

Following the Israeli Gaza bombardment, the second in the last four years, Hamas was quick to declare victory. The two sides had reached a ceasefire, which most likely was similar to the one that they were about to sign just a week before the Israeli operation began. During the week long campaign, in the name of self-defense, the Israelis used excessive force (an understatement), bombing Gaza’s infrastructure, and killing over 160 people. While Israelis claim this was done to stop the firing of rockets on their civilian population, which under no circumstances can be condoned, it is safe to say that the escalation could have been avoided, and was sparked by Israel, following the assassination of Hamas leader, Ahmad al-Jabari. 

Israel signed the ceasefire seemingly to avoid a ground invasion. Prime Minister Netanyahu knew too well that a botched operation could spoil his plans to be re-elected in January. And, if it was not due to election speculation, the fact is that Israel was not able to stop the rockets from showering Israel, even after wreaking mass havoc. So, in that sense, Israel did not win. But, did they lose? Certainly, not; in this game that has gone on far too long, there are no "winners," and the losers are the masses of people who are caught up in the fire of their politicians, who recklessly "fight in their name." 
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On Gaza Affair and Regional issues, plus Hard Questions for Israel, click here

Relation between the Gaza Affair and Israeli Elections, click here
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Therefore, an Israeli non-victory also does not equal a Hamas victory; something Hamas claimed, following the signing of the ceasefire.  Yes, they succeeded to hit Tel Aviv with their rockets; the last time this happened was in 1991, when during the first Gulf War Iraq fired scud missiles, much larger than the Hamas rockets. Hamas also succeeded in holding their own; but to claim that this was a victory is absurd. Especially, at what cost! During the midst of fighting, I simply did not buy Hamas’ persistence to shoot rockets into Israel as a noble resistance, and I placed it on the same level as the Israelis’ sick obsession of bombing the hell out of Gaza. The Hamas’ policy of continued resistance (shooting rockets) can only be interpreted as one of "we will go down with the ship no matter what, taking all of our passengers with us." And, for all those claiming victory, they should open their eyes and see that for Hamas, this was a major blow, but for Gaza it was much bigger.

Not Hamas, Not Israel, let the Palestinian People be the Victors  

I should hope that after all this pain and suffering that the real victors will be the Palestinian people. In four days, on November 29, 65 years after the UN declared that Palestine would be divided into a Jewish and Arab state, it is likely that Palestine is going to be recognized by the UN General Assembly as a non-member state. As it stands now, the Palestinians have a chance to win the needed 2/3 of the vote, with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas set on moving forward, despite Israel’s threats to topple him if he succeeds.  Now, the time has come for the world to stand up and recognize Palestine. Yes, most likely, the United States and Europe will object or sustain; yet, if they do so, this will be a stain on these countries, especially after the Gaza operation. For US President, Barack Obama, this is gus chance to prove to the world that he is serious about reaching a comprehensive peace settlement (see former blog related to this)    

For Gaza, they urgently need the status of statehood.  Once this is achieved it will be a golden opportunity for the world to take steps to end the blockade, and second, to take responsibility to solve the real crisis in Gaza: mass poverty, unemployment, coupled with one of the highest birthrates on the planet (see below). The time has come for Gaza, regardless which government rules there, or what actions are taken, that the world take notice of the suffering that has gone on there for decades. 

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I have provided some staggering statistics below, which show the sheer desperation Gazans face on a daily basis:

Population: 1,710,257 (Gaza City is one of the most densely populated places in the whole world!)

43.8% 0-14 years of age (male 384,494/ female 363,818)

54.7% 15-63 (male 469,528/ female 448,182)

65 years and over: 2.6% (male 17,939/ female 26,296) (2012 est.)

Median Age male-17.9 years old (some statistics places this even at 14)

Infant mortality about 17/1000 births

Unemployment rate: 40% (184^th country out of 201)

Poverty Rate 38%

Literacy rate: 92.4%

Facts from Institute for Middle East Understanding, based on a UN Report

• Gazan households spend 56 percent of their expenditures on food, with 52.5 percent eating lower quality food and 67 percent buying food on credit as a result of high food costs.
• 54 percent of households face food insecurity, defined as inadequate physical, social or economic access to food. An additional 12 percent are considered vulnerable to food insecurity. Only 20 percent of Gazan households are food secure.
• 38 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.
• Since the blockade began, the number of Palestinian refugees completely unable to secure access to food and lacking the means to purchase even the most basic items, such as soap, school stationery and safe drinking water (‘abject poverty’) has tripled to 300,000.
• 75 percent of households polled by the World Food Programme in the Gaza Strip received outside aid.
• Gaza’s hospitals are at “zero stock levels” for 178 of 480 essential medications, with another 69 at low stock. Of 700 essential medical supplies, 190 are at “zero stock levels” and another 70 at low stock.
• Due to lack of fuel, the Gaza Power Plant runs at 45 percent capacity, leading to daily blackouts of eight to twelve hours. Given this fuel shortage, 90 percent of private cars are no longer driven and of public services, only 15 percent are operational. (Palestinian Centre for Human Rights, The Illegal Closure of the Gaza Strip: Collective Punishment of the Civilian Population, December 10, 2010)
• The Gaza aquifer provides 90 percent of Gaza’s water. Only ten percent of that water meets the standards of being suitable for consumption. Water-borne diseases cause 26 percent of illnesses in Gaza.
• Because of lack of treatment capacity and electricity, Gaza authorities must release around 80,000 cubic meters of sewage into the Mediterranean Sea on a daily basis.
• The construction of 86,000 houses is required to meet natural growth and recover from previous Israeli invasions.

• Economic output per capita has fallen by 40 percent of 1994 levels.
• 95 percent of Gaza’s 3,900 industrial businesses are closed or have suspended work. The other five percent are operating at 20 to 50 percent of capacity. This has cost between 100,000 and 120,000 jobs.
• Israeli restrictions block access to 35 percent of Gaza’s agricultural land and fishermen are forbidden to fish beyond 3 nautical miles from the shore. In 2010,employment in agriculture fell from 14,900 to 10,100.
• While Gaza needs 670,000 truckloads of construction material, an average of 715 enter per month, at 11% of pre-blockade levels. The construction industry now has 10,000 workers, 42 percent of pre-blockade levels.
• Unemployment is at 45.2 percent, with only 40.3 percent of working-age Gazans in the labor force. Youth unemployment is at more than 47 percent.
• 290 truckloads of exports were allowed out of Gaza between November 2010 and May 2011. Before the siege, more than 960 truckloads a month exited Gaza. This is onlyfive percent of pre-blockade levels.
• In 2011, a weekly average of 900 truckloads of goods entered Gaza. Before the siege, 2,807 truckloads entered weekly.
• On March 2, 2011, Israel closed the Karni crossing, forcing importers and exporters to use the Kerem Shalom crossing. For wheat exporters, this increased transport costs by 235 percent and for wheat importers by 30 percent.
• Between June 2010 and March 2011, the cost of wheat flour increased by 50 percent and vegetable oil increased by 40 percent. Meanwhile, the average wage has decreased by more than 25 percent since 2007.

Makings Sense of Gaza Assault: Continued Stalemate between Hamas and Israel

We are well into the fifth day of the Israeli assault, named by them as “Pillar of Defense.”  Until now, no ceasefire agreement has been reached, failing to bring calm to the Strip, which has been bombed continuously since the breakout of the Israeli campaign. Parallel, the Hamas, and some fringe groups, have been able to continue to shoot rockets into Israel, with their range reaching as far as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

For the Israelis, in a historical perspective, they have had it out for Hamas for years. This one-time branch of the (once radical, now mainstream) Muslim Brotherhood for years sat quietly, being used by Israel as a tool to balance out the Palestinian Liberation Organization.  However, in 1988, following the first Intifada, which took place in the Palestinian territories, occupied by Israel in 1967, Hamas started to take the lead in its opposition to the “Zionist occupiers.” Following the 1993 Oslo Accords, which immediately showed signs of failure, the Hamas became the main voice of the Palestinian opposition, which quickly radicalized opting for suicide bombers to fulfill their mission in the streets of Israel, killing hundreds of innocent citizens.

As ties between the PLO and Hamas worsened, the Palestinians, themselves were thrown into civil conflict.  Growing tensions reached a boiling point after the Palestinians elections in 2006, when Hamas received the majority vote, eventually joining together with the PLO in a National Unity government. From this point on, events have spiraled out of control. First, Israel, the US, and the European Union, refused to recognize the democratic outcome, freezing all funding and suspending relations. Then, the PLO and Hamas were thrown into months of armed conflict, with the Hamas taking over the Gaza strip in summer 2007, and setting up a mini-state. While Israel is not occupying the Gaza Strip, through their blockade, they have turned Gaza into what some call the largest open air prison.   

Gaza, at the reins of the Hamas, quickly turned into a challenge for Israel, and as tensions arose, the Hamas adopted a new strategy, the shooting of homemade rockets over the border.  These rockets over the years have turned from homemade ones to more sophisticated rockets, such as Grads, and more recently, the Iranian made Fajr 5, which were smuggled via Egypt to tunnels linked to the Strip. After less than a year-and-a-half of Hamas rule in Gaza, in late December 2008, Israel embarked on Operation Cast Lead, at an attempt to cleanse Gaza of Hamas control, which came after a three-week Israeli campaign launched in June 2006, when the Hamas was able to kidnap the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who was returned in healthy condition only last year.

Operation Cast Lead in some senses was a watershed in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; with Gaza battered by massive bombardment, killing over 1500, it seemed that the Palestinians had reached the lowest point since the 1948 Nakbah. For the Israelis, it will be remembered as another war of theirs, that once the dust settled, left people questioning what they achieved, and at what cost. Clearly, within months, the beaten down Hamas, collected itself together and once again proved its ability to challenge Israel.

My memory of Operation Cast Lead was one of an overly obsessed Israel, which became more entrenched once they saw the Hamas, even under mass bombardment, would not cave in. The numerous pictures of the dead were haunting, similar to ones we are seeing once again. As I write, the death toll in Gaza, which includes children, has almost reached a hundred. The flip-side is that over the five years, most Israeli children living in the south have become accustomed to the fact that they cannot play out in the open; as children in the world watch weather reports to see if rain is expected, Israeli children before playing outdoors check the forecast for rockets. And, in the event there is a direct hit, the rockets also kill, as we saw last week, when three members of an Israeli family were killed.

The question of why the Israelis decided now to set on a campaign is mind boggling (see links to related articles below). It is hard to imagine that they will be able to declare a decisive victory against Hamas, and in the end, they will sign a ceasefire not giving them any real advantage. For now, a massive ground operation seems unlikely, especially since the Israeli government, just before elections, cannot afford to have soldiers returning home in coffins. Moreover, in terms of humanity (if that is not enough, diplomatically) how can they justify a campaign, which causes massive terror over a civilian population; are the children of Gaza less entitled to life than that of Israelis?

For Hamas, I think too it is high time that they rethink their strategy.  Is all the pain and conflict inflicted by the Israeli strikes worth it, when in the end we all know a ceasefire is in the waiting? After weeks of shooting rockets at Israelis, were you surprised that they seized the moment?  Clearly, Hamas must know that they have little to gain from this short term conflict, and a long term conflict which even be worse. With Egypt electing a Muslim brotherhood backed President, could Hamas not have found better ways to promote their agenda?

Let us hope that the two sides will come to their senses and work for an immediate halt in violence. I will address in an upcoming blog what will come after a ceasefire, but what is clear is that both Israelis and Palestinians have some serious questions to ask their leaders. This might come tomorrow, or perhaps a decade from now, but clearly both sides have failed radically to promise a better future for the young generation.  

I hope I have been able to make a little sense out of this sheer madness.  

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Here are links to my previous blogs on aspects of the Gaza events:

On Regional issues and Hard Questions for Israel, click here

Relation between the Gaza Affair and Israeli Elections, click here

The Gaza Crisis: Some thoughts on Region and Questions to Israel

The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, seems to have read the region well before he started the recent military campaign in Gaza. With the Middle East in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Syria in the midst of a civil war, and Turkish-Israeli relations at the lowest point ever, Israel will be able to continue with their military operation with little interference.

Since the overthrowing of Hosni Mubarak, Israeli-Egyptian relations have been put to a test.  The new president, Mohammad Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood which is aligned with Hamas, has had to walk a tight rope between pleasing his constituency and keeping the US satisfied. Clearly, for Israel, this marked a change; Mubarak, had been a strong ally of the Jewish state: Egypt, together with Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and Saudi Arabia, had unofficial alliance against Hamas, and served as a force countering Hezbollah.

Immediately before the Israeli escalation, which was set off by the assassination of the Hamas military leader, Ahmad al-Jabari, Egypt had been in the midst of writing up a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel. The fact that Israel chose to disrespect the Egyptian efforts (something they did to Turkish PM Erdogan right before Operation Cast-Lead), must have outraged Morsi to no end; once the Israeli massive bombardment of the Strip began, the Egyptian ambassador to Israel was recalled. Nevertheless, just two days later it seems that all eyes are on Egpyt to broker a deal. Just this morning the Egyptian PM, Hesham Kandil, paid a visit to Gaza. On Sunday, Erdogan will be arriving for an already planned visit aimed at boosting economic ties between Egypt and Turkey, and the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon will arrive to Cairo on Tuesday.  In other words, Egypt is still in the picture and it seems that Morsi will continue to straddle the tight rope, at least in the near future. However, if the Israeli Operation turns into a long term operation, similar to Operation Cast Lead, which took place almost four years ago, Israel could be entering dangerous waters, perhaps crossing a line in which they will not be able to salvage their relations with Egypt. Of course, Israel knows this, and it seems like they will work to cut this operation short.

On Israel’s northern front, Hezbollah opted not to act during the last major Israeli operation in Gaza (it did so in the summer 2007), so it is unlikely that they will now. Especially, since there main supporter in the region, Syria, is caught up in a civil war. The fact that the Assad regime has managed to kill over 30,000 of his citizens, has taken a great deal of support away from the Palestinian cause, also making the Israelis work a bit easier. Put bluntly, who in Syria will look towards defending the Palestinian cause when they are struggling and dying on a daily basis, with almost 500,000 Syrian refugees dispersed in the surrounding countries.  As for the Hezbollah, they too know that any misguided act could throw Lebanon into chaos, something which would not serve them well for now. It seems that the Israeli government also took these issues into consideration.

Perhaps, most important of all is Turkey. During the last decade, Israeli-Turkish relations have deteriorated. While most attribute this solely to PM Erodgan, we need to keep in mind that the Turkish people have always been overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian. In fact, warm relations with Israel have always been contingent on Israel’s progress at securing a peace deal with the Palestinians. Some might be surprised that Erdogan, during the first years of his tenure, breathed new life in the relations with Israel, after his predecessor, the late (secular) Bulent Ecevit, accused Israelis of committing genocide in the Jenin Refugee camp in 2002. Now that Erdogan has taken the reins of the Turkish state away from the Turkish army command, Israel is left with no internal support. Ironically, due to Turkey’s placing Israeli-Turkish ties on hold following the Gaza Flotilla incident, there is little Turkey can do for the Palestinians. Last year, in an article published in Haaretz (translated to Turkish in Radikal), I argued that if Erdogan really wanted to help the Palestinians, he would have to strengthen his ties with Israel. The current Gaza affair has shown how true this is. With no ambassador, and minimal diplomatic ties, what can Erdogan do?

For now, it seems Erdogan will use the strengthening of relations with Egypt as a way to pressure Israel, perhaps even establishing a strategic military alliance. While some analysts are speculating that in the post Arab Spring period, Turkey and Egypt will compete for regional hegemony, we need to remember that recently Turkey loaned Egypt one billion dollars. Egypt needs Turkey, and economically, Turkey needs to branch out into new markets. Further, the loan deal should also be seen as a tide change in regional trends since for decades Egypt has relied solely on US financial support. 

Now to the Iranians; it seems that they must know that the current Israeli operation in Gaza, very well could be preparing the Israeli home front for a war with Iran.  One of the Israeli scenarios was if they went to war with Iran, Hamas would join in, causing havoc on the southern front. However, with a beaten Hamas, Israel will be able to focus on its northern front, in case Iran has Hezbollah join the escapade. Further, an obvious outcome of the current conflict, even if not planned, is with Hamas rockets falling on the Tel Aviv metropolitan are, the Israeli government will be able to assess the overall situation, if in the not too-far-future, Iran's missiles will be falling on Israel's largest population center.   

Perhaps Netanyahu, along with his FM, Avigdor Lieberman, who seems keen on wrecking all of Israeli ties with Arab and Muslim countries, might have taken all of the above scenarios into consideration. However, with all the political gambles being taken, it seems that they still are far from answering the real questions: How much longer will Israel be able to remain an isolated Middle East state, occupying Palestinian territories? Why would they exchange a peace with Egypt,  albeit a cold one, for a hostile one? Why does the current government not do more to improve their relations with Turkey, since it was Israel who led the botched Flotilla campaign. Why have they recently threatened to topple Palestinian moderates, like Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas?

If you get rid of Abbas, who will Israel speak with?

The essential question really then is what are the Israelis waiting for?  If the Israeli electorate does not wake up and pressure their leaders to work towards a comprehensive agreement they might find themselves living in a de facto bi-national state, one that will need to rely on an apartheid system to continue its existence. Time is running out, and an operation in Gaza will do little to solve Israel's real existential questions. 

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The Escalation in Gaza: its Twitterization and how Operation Hits at the Heart of Israeli Democracy (Israeli 2013 Election Coverage, 3)

Late yesterday afternoon (in Istanbul), while doing my evening shop in a supermarket a beep came from i-phone. It was an update from Yedioth Ahronot, informing me that Israel had set off on Operation Pillar of Defense against the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. I sighed, grabbed enough food to make dinner, and within minutes had returned home to see the developments. 

Twitterization of the Conflict

Well, my fears were immediately confirmed. First, turning on the BBC, news was coming in of a massive Israeli onslaught, which began with the targeted assassination of Hamas military leader, Ahmad al-Jabari.  However, as a relatively new twitter user, I knew this would provide me with good sources to see how this struggle was playing out.  In English, Hebrew, Arabic, and Turkish, I scanned the tweets, one by one.  One tweet was from Gaza announcing bombs going off, another Gazan mentioned that rockets had just been fired at Israel; within minutes, an Israeli tweeted that sirens had just gone off in Beer Sheva. In other words, I was watching the war from my home in Istanbul, succumbed by the feeling that I was there.  Definitely, a post-modern reality. Not surprisingly, I later learned that the Israeli army first announced the beginning of the operation via their twitter account.  

I myself began to tweet in different languages. In Turkish I tweeted one thing, in Hebrew another, and English something different (need to add Arabic fonts!), trying to speak to different communities. It turned out to be a frustrating exercise since I know if I was in Israel I would have been out in the street demonstrating, shouting out in a full voice: no to escalation, no to war! Yes, by tweeting I was actually addressing a group, who I could not see. In a street demonstration, I can capture the eyes of thousands, it is real-time, with real reactions of people, some clapping and others cursing. In fact, almost four years ago, I was in Israel during Operation Cast Lead and we did that: together Jews and Palestinians, we took to the streets.

The Escalation and the Upcoming Israeli Elections

Yes, it has been four years since the last Israeli-Palestinian war in Gaza. Sadly, neither social media, nor people protesting, have succeeded in finding some way to convince both Israelis and Palestinians to give up arms and find a solution. This latest escalation is typical.  It began last week as skirmish on the Gaza-Israel border between Hamas and the Israeli army, leading to Israeli reprisal and Hamas shooting rockets into Israel’s southern cities. Which side was “first” is not important.  By targeting Jabari, Israel knew that this was a declaration of war, and rather than continuing the negotiations for a cease-fire, they escalated.

What is worrying is the timing of the escalation.  With the Israeli elections just a little over two months away, many analysts are accusing Israeli PM Netanyahu as using the onslaught to convince the Israeli people of his ability to manage a major operation, especially since he has made it clear that he believes Israel should target Iran, in the event they are close to obtaining nuclear arms. For his Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, who now leads the small Atsmaut (Independence) Party, after defecting from Labor, a successful operation might actually give his party enough votes to cross the threshold to enter parliament. 

Well, we can speculate all we want, and I am sure that there was not a scenario where Netanyahu and Barak sat down and said to one another, “time to start a war.”; however, how could this not be in the back of their minds. In any case, Netanyahu must be quite confident of the operation's success since dragging in Israel to a major conflict could also lead to him losing elections. With Israel being militarily superior, this scenario seems unlikely.*

I will conclude by saying then, yes, Israel has a right to defend itself, just like the Palestinians have a right to defend themselves. However, what might be at stake here is actually the Israeli democracy itself. The truth be known, the recent escalation could have been diverted, which leads us to the simple but loaded question:

In a democracy, doesn't the launching of such an operation before an election counter the essence of a democratic system? I would say yes, and therefore argue that the timing of this operation is not only an attack on Gaza, but also on democracy and the future essence of the Israeli state.

*Israeli superiority is also related to changes in regional politics, which I will address in an upcoming blog.

  

Palestine Now: Mahmoud Abbas, Barack Obama, and the Upcoming Israeli vote (Israeli 2013 Election Coverage, 2)

Over a year ago, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas attempted to have Palestine recognized as a full member state of the United Nations; unfortunately, the Americans vetoed this, causing many to lose hope in US President Barack Obama. A little over a year later, Abbas is planning to go back to the UN to rally up support in the General Assembly for a vote on recognizing Palestine as a non-member state. While many Palestinians have lost faith in Abbas, with time, he has shown that he is dedicated to see a Palestinian state established in the shortest time possible.

For many Palestinians, Mahmoud Abbas has betrayed them; two weeks ago, he appeared on Israeli channel two, and declared in Arabic and English that he believed in the two-state solution, and has no aspiration to return to live in Safad (Tzefat), his birthplace which is located in the northern Israel.  He declared that for him, Palestine is the West Bank and Gaza strip, with Jerusalem as its capital (shared with Israel).  This contradicts the will of many Palestinians who believe in the right of return to historical Palestine, to the lands that they lived on before the 1948 Nakbah. 

Realistically speaking, I think we all know that for now the Right of Return is not on the agenda; and if so, it would be for a limited number of people negotiated under a settlement. In any case, we are so far from a settlement that under the circumstances, those who oppose Abbas should reassess their stance. More than any other Palestinian politician, Abbas has systematically demonstrated that he is dedicated to peace and a struggle which is achieved through diplomacy. I would argue that he has made serious progress at placing Palestine on the agenda. Now that Obama has won a second term, Abbas can safely brush off Israeli claims that he is at fault for not making progress towards a peace agreement.   

Over the last almost four years, Israeli PM Netanyahu and his very undiplomatic Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, have demonstrated over and over again that they are not interested in peace (for more on Netanyahu/Lieberman and elections, click here).  While the Iranian threat is real, Netanyahu has used it as a way to divert attention from the Israeli occupation and the continued colonization of Palestinian lands. Furthermore, Lieberman has not missed an opportunity to try to delegitimize Abbas and the Palestinian authority. More recently, Israel is threatening the Palestinian authority that if they go to the UN for recognition, Israel will hold back revenues it owes them.    

The real test now begins for Barack Obama to push the Israeli government to either work towards a two-state solution, or accept the consequences: a shared state with Palestinians; in other words, a bi-national state. With the Israeli elections only two months away, a major speech concerning the Middle East is more important than ever, and if Obama does have something in mind, it needs to be stated even before the second inauguration. Let us not forget that concerning foreign policy, Obama has a golden opportunity to make change; not like domestic politics where his hands are tied by the Republican house, with foreign policy he is free to set the agenda on his own.  If he were to do this, the Israeli electorate would have the chance to see that the game of stalling is over and the time has come to take a major step at ending the occupation, or to bear the consequences. By doing this, Obama will place the peace process back on the agenda, breathing debate into the Israeli society concerning its future.  

A Hunger Strike:An Opposition behind Bars

During the last 53 days, many things have happened in Turkey and the world. For me, I started the university semester and I cannot believe that next week midterms will begin.  Summer ended, lasting extra long, and finally it is getting quite chilly outside. A film about Muslims sparked outrage. More recently, a hurricane named Sandy battered the East coast. I could go on and delve into different news stories. However, one thing we perhaps missed was that in Turkey, for the last 53 days, almost 700 Kurdish prisoners in Turkish jails have gone on a hunger strike (starting on different dates). They are demanding their right as Turkish citizens to study in their mother tongue , have the right to speak Kurdish in courts (with a translator), and want an end to the solitary confinement of the outlawed Kurdish PKK’s leader Abdullah Ocalan.

Kurds in Turkey's western city of Adana protest in the name of the hunger strikers

Those following the Turkish news, or my blog during the last almost four years, will know that Turkey has for over thirty years been subjected to an ongoing armed uprising of its Kurdish population in Turkey’s southeastern regions. During these years, over 40,000 Turkish citizens have been killed (on both sides) and throughout the 1990’s Turkey offered no negotiations, and sought out a military solution. The Kurdish organization, the PKK, recognized by most of the western world as a terrorist organization, has no chance of winning their armed struggle, but they also inflict great challenges on the Turkish military, and this year alone, there has been almost 100 security personnel killed. 

While the armed struggle is led by the outlawed PKK, with their leader, Abdullah Ocalan, being jailed on an island prison not far from Istanbul, the civil branch of the Kurdish struggle is played out through a political party, the Peace and Democratic Party (BDP). This party is in the Turkish parliament and the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is currently in the process of trying to strip some of the BDP members of their parliamentary status due to an event where the MPs took photos embracing PKK guerrillas.  Erdogan, who for the first part of his ten-year tenure worked to reach an agreement with the Kurds, more recently has switched to a zero-tolerance policy towards their demands.

During the last few months, as a result of the growing rift between the Turkish state and the Kurds, we have seen an increase in the violent clashes between the Turkish military and the PKK fighters.  On the civilian front, thousands of Kurds have been jailed (along with their Turkish allies), including academics, writers, journalists, and elected officials (mayors to MPs). Many are held months and years without trial, and often charged on anti-terrorist laws, which the United Nations Human Rights Committee recently criticized as "incompatible with international law," and implenting "unacceptable restrictions on the right of due process for accused people."

It is this atmosphere that Kurdish prisoners sought out to become active in their opposition; where they are silenced in jail, a massive hunger strike has awoken both Kurds and Turks (both Turkish citizens) to the ongoing Kurdish plight.  The Turkish government once again is showing that it is losing its grip over the society at large (see last week’s blog on Republican Day march), with the PM Erdogan ridiculing the BDP leaders as ones that feast at huge banquets, while their counterparts are on a hunger strike; he was basing his claims on a picture of the leaders at a feast, which was taken two months before the strike. On an official state visit to Germany, Erdogan, standing next to German PM Merkel, even went so far as to call the strike a political “show,” claiming that only one person is really on a hunger strike.  

Well, as Erdogan tries to brush off the strike, during the last two weeks, the mainstream Turkish media has been covering events on a daily basis. Massive demonstrations have been held in Turkey’s southeastern cities, such as Diyarbakir and Van, and in some western cities with large Kurdish populations, such as Adana.  A general strike was observed throughout most of the southeast last Tuesday with shopkeepers closing their shutters and children refusing to go to school.  There is no question that the Kurdish question just in a matter of a few months has managed to bring a huge split in the society, with Kurds and Turks reaching a dangerous divide.    

Turkey, almost a decade ago witnessed a prison “death strike,” held by a Turkish radical left movement with some dying; however, their support was limited, not like the Kurdish hunger strikers. Last year, the BDP member and MP Sebahat Tuncel, who herself might find herself behind bars due to an ongoing court case, wrote an article, which appeared in the NY Times. It was an op-ed which talked about that the Kurds in Turkey also might have their own “Arab Spring.” If the government does not act soon, and strikers start to die one by one, the Turkish government could be faced with a backlash that it has not seen until now, giving impetus to Tuncel’s words. Further, with the Turkish society polarized at the seams, such a scenario could lead to a general consensus that Erdogan, the invincible leader, might just not make it through the storm. 

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